Football · New Zealand Northern League · 29/08, 05:00

Prediction: Fencibles United vs Western Springs AFC

Team pages: Fencibles United · Western Springs AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Fencibles United2.21

Western Springs AFC1.51

1X2

53% 22% 26%

Fencibles United Draw Western Springs AFC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Fencibles United 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Western Springs AFC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fencibles United 3–1 Western Springs AFC (4 last)

Western Springs AFC0-6Fencibles United
Fencibles United4-3Western Springs AFC
Fencibles United2-1Western Springs AFC
Western Springs AFC2-0Fencibles United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fencibles United 1610 · Western Springs AFC 1439

	Fencibles United	Draw	Western Springs AFC
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	53%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fencibles United (rating 1610 vs 1439).
H2H favours Fencibles United: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fencibles United	Western Springs AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.16 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +5’	1.70	4.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +7’	1.58	3.97	4.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fencibles United 3–0–1 Western Springs AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Western Springs AFC	0-6 HT 0-3	Fencibles United
09/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Fencibles United	4-3 HT 1-2	Western Springs AFC
04/07/25 New Zealand Cup	Fencibles United	2-1 HT 1-0	Western Springs AFC
03/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	Western Springs AFC	2-0 HT 2-0	Fencibles United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	21	13	5	3	38	9	44
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	21	10	5	6	34	31	35
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	21	7	3	11	32	37	24
9	Melville United	21	6	2	13	24	47	20
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	21	3	3	15	22	51	12
12	Manukau United	21	2	1	18	13	71	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fencibles United	Western Springs AFC
Birkenhead United	0-0 D	1-2 L
Auckland United FC	4-1 W	0-0 D
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-4 L	0-1 L
Auckland City	0-3 L	0-3 L
East Coast Bays	3-2 W	2-2 D
Bay Olympic	2-1 W	3-0 W
Melville United	3-2 W	0-2 L
Tauranga City AFC	7-1 W	5-0 W
Manukau United	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Fencibles United (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fencibles United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	3-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-4	3	1	L
01/08	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
18/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
11/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
27/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
20/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
06/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	4-1	7-1	8	4	W
29/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	4	1	W

Western Springs AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
15/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
01/08	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
18/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/07	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
06/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-2	2-2	9	4	D
29/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
23/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	0-3	0-6	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fencibles United vs Western Springs AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fencibles United win (53%). Probabilities: Fencibles United 53%, draw 22%, Western Springs AFC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Fencibles United vs Western Springs AFC?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Fencibles United 2.21 · Western Springs AFC 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fencibles United vs Western Springs AFC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.