Football · New Zealand Northern League · 29/08, 05:00

Prediction: East Coast Bays vs Auckland United FC

Team pages: East Coast Bays · Auckland United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

East Coast Bays1.43

Auckland United FC1.48

1X2

36% 25% 39%

East Coast Bays Draw Auckland United FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

East Coast Bays 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Auckland United FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

East Coast Bays 0–2–3 Auckland United FC (5 last)

Auckland United FC3-0East Coast Bays
East Coast Bays0-1Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC1-1East Coast Bays
East Coast Bays1-1Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC2-0East Coast Bays

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · East Coast Bays 1468 · Auckland United FC 1523

	East Coast Bays	Draw	Auckland United FC
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	37%	23%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland United FC (rating 1468 vs 1523).
H2H favours Auckland United FC: 3-2-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	East Coast Bays	Auckland United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.80

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.27 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 15.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:58 +12’	2.40	3.80	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +6’	2.28	3.68	2.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · East Coast Bays 0–2–3 Auckland United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	3-0 HT 2-0	East Coast Bays
02/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	East Coast Bays	0-1 HT 0-1	Auckland United FC
26/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	1-1 HT 0-0	East Coast Bays
03/08/24 New Zealand Northern League	East Coast Bays	1-1 HT 1-1	Auckland United FC
11/05/24 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	2-0 HT 1-0	East Coast Bays

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	21	13	5	3	38	9	44
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	21	10	5	6	34	31	35
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	21	7	3	11	32	37	24
9	Melville United	21	6	2	13	24	47	20
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	21	3	3	15	22	51	12
12	Manukau United	21	2	1	18	13	71	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	East Coast Bays	Auckland United FC
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-1 D	1-0 W
Auckland FC II	0-2 L	0-2 L
Melville United	0-2 L	3-0 W
Auckland City	4-3 W	1-1 D
Bay Olympic	2-2 D	3-1 W
Fencibles United	2-3 L	1-4 L
Tauranga City AFC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Manukau United	2-0 W	6-0 W
Western Springs AFC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Birkenhead United	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland United FC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

East Coast Bays

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
01/08	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
22/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-2	4-3	3	4	W
18/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	3	L
27/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
20/06	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
06/06	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
28/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-3	3	1	L

Auckland United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
19/08	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
08/08	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
01/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	6-0	2	3	W
18/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
27/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	9	0	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
06/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
28/05	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-2	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in East Coast Bays vs Auckland United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland United FC win (39%). Probabilities: East Coast Bays 36%, draw 25%, Auckland United FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in East Coast Bays vs Auckland United FC?

The model expects 2.91 goals (East Coast Bays 1.43 · Auckland United FC 1.48), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in East Coast Bays vs Auckland United FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.