Football · New Zealand Northern League · 29/08, 05:00

Prediction: Tauranga City AFC vs Manukau United

Team pages: Tauranga City AFC · Manukau United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Tauranga City AFC2.16

Manukau United1.31

1X2

56% 22% 22%

Tauranga City AFC Draw Manukau United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tauranga City AFC 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Manukau United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Tauranga City AFC 0–1 Manukau United (1 last)

Manukau United3-2Tauranga City AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tauranga City AFC 1394 · Manukau United 1397

	Tauranga City AFC	Draw	Manukau United
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tauranga City AFC	Manukau United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.8	0.5 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.5	0.2 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/10/90%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	1 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 5.04 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +9’	1.57	4.20	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +7’	1.56	5.04	3.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tauranga City AFC 0–0–1 Manukau United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	3-2 HT 1-1	Tauranga City AFC

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	21	13	5	3	38	9	44
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	21	10	5	6	34	31	35
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	21	7	3	11	32	37	24
9	Melville United	21	6	2	13	24	47	20
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	21	3	3	15	22	51	12
12	Manukau United	21	2	1	18	13	71	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tauranga City AFC	Manukau United
Western Springs AFC	0-5 L	1-0 W
Birkenhead United	0-3 L	1-6 L
Auckland United FC	0-3 L	0-6 L
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-1 L	0-7 L
Auckland City	2-3 L	0-5 L
Auckland FC II	1-2 L	2-3 L
East Coast Bays	1-2 L	0-2 L
Bay Olympic	1-2 L	0-1 L
Fencibles United	1-7 L	1-2 L
Melville United	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 9 L	1 W 0 D 9 L

Better against common opponents: Tauranga City AFC (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tauranga City AFC

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-5	3	4	L
15/08	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
08/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
01/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
18/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	2	2	L
11/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
20/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-4	1-7	1	4	L
28/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	10	8	W

Manukau United

LLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
15/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
01/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-6	2	3	L
18/07	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-4	0-7	0	1	L
11/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
27/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	1	L
20/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
06/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
29/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tauranga City AFC vs Manukau United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tauranga City AFC win (56%). Probabilities: Tauranga City AFC 56%, draw 22%, Manukau United 22%.

How many goals are expected in Tauranga City AFC vs Manukau United?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Tauranga City AFC 2.16 · Manukau United 1.31), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tauranga City AFC vs Manukau United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.