Football · New Zealand Northern League · 29/08, 05:00

Prediction: Melville United vs Auckland City

Team pages: Melville United · Auckland City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Melville United0.71

Auckland City2.68

1X2

7% 14% 79%

Melville United Draw Auckland City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Melville United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWWLW

Auckland City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Melville United 0–6 Auckland City (6 last)

Auckland City4-0Melville United
Melville United2-3Auckland City
Auckland City7-3Melville United
Melville United0-1Auckland City
Auckland City3-1Melville United
Auckland City2-0Melville United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melville United 1454 · Auckland City 1627

	Melville United	Draw	Auckland City
Our model	7%	15%	78%
Market	8%	13%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1454 vs 1627).
H2H favours Auckland City: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melville United	Auckland City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	3.6 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

112.00

X7.00

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.90

2 (-2.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	1.17 → 1.17	Pinn 1.21 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:48 +21’	12.00	7.00	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +6’	7.29	5.86	1.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melville United 0–0–6 Auckland City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	4-0 HT 1-0	Melville United
31/08/24 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	2-3 HT 0-0	Auckland City
20/04/24 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	7-3 HT 4-2	Melville United
22/07/23 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	0-1 HT 0-0	Auckland City
22/04/23 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	3-1 HT 1-1	Melville United
26/11/22 New Zealand Football Championship	Auckland City	2-0 HT 1-0	Melville United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	21	13	5	3	38	9	44
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	21	10	5	6	34	31	35
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	21	7	3	11	32	37	24
9	Melville United	21	6	2	13	24	47	20
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	21	3	3	15	22	51	12
12	Manukau United	21	2	1	18	13	71	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melville United	Auckland City
Manukau United	1-0 W	5-0 W
Auckland FC II	1-5 L	2-0 W
Western Springs AFC	2-0 W	3-0 W
East Coast Bays	2-0 W	3-4 L
Birkenhead United	1-4 L	2-3 L
Bay Olympic	1-1 D	5-1 W
Auckland United FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Fencibles United	2-3 L	3-0 W
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-4 L	0-0 D
Tauranga City AFC	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland City (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melville United

LLLLDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
15/08	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-5	4	1	L
08/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
01/08	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-3	1-4	3	3	L
11/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
27/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
20/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
06/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
28/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	8	L

Auckland City

DDLWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
29/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	4-1	5-1	5	2	W
22/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-3	3-4	8	4	L
18/07	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	15	2	W
11/07	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	5-0	8	1	W
01/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/06	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
20/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-3	2-3	3	4	L
06/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
30/05	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melville United vs Auckland City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland City win (79%). Probabilities: Melville United 7%, draw 14%, Auckland City 79%.

How many goals are expected in Melville United vs Auckland City?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Melville United 0.71 · Auckland City 2.68), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Melville United vs Auckland City?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.