Football · New Zealand Northern League · 22/08, 08:00

Prediction: Auckland United FC vs Bay Olympic

Team pages: Auckland United FC · Bay Olympic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Auckland United FC2.65

Bay Olympic1.17

1X2

69% 17% 14%

Auckland United FC Draw Bay Olympic

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Auckland United FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDLWWL

Bay Olympic 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDLWL

Head-to-head

Auckland United FC 6–0 Bay Olympic (6 last)

Bay Olympic0-3Auckland United FC
Bay Olympic0-2Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC2-1Bay Olympic
Auckland United FC3-2Bay Olympic
Bay Olympic0-1Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC4-1Bay Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Auckland United FC 1525 · Bay Olympic 1443

	Auckland United FC	Draw	Bay Olympic
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	69%	17%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland United FC (rating 1525 vs 1443).
H2H favours Auckland United FC: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Auckland United FC	Bay Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.6 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.8	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.25

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.38▲	Bet365 1.38
X	5.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	6.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:52 +4’	1.30	5.25	6.25
13:42 +7’	1.38▲	5.00▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland United FC 6–0–0 Bay Olympic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Bay Olympic	0-3 HT 0-2	Auckland United FC
29/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	Bay Olympic	0-2 HT 0-1	Auckland United FC
28/03/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Bay Olympic
24/08/24 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	3-2 HT 2-1	Bay Olympic
25/05/24 New Zealand Northern League	Bay Olympic	0-1 HT 0-1	Auckland United FC
22/07/23 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	4-1 HT 1-1	Bay Olympic

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	20	13	4	3	37	8	43
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	20	10	4	6	33	30	34
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	20	6	3	11	27	37	21
9	Melville United	20	5	2	13	23	47	17
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	20	3	3	14	22	46	12
12	Manukau United	20	2	1	17	13	70	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Auckland United FC	Bay Olympic
Fencibles United	1-4 L	1-2 L
Tauranga City AFC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Manukau United	6-0 W	1-0 W
Birkenhead United	0-4 L	2-6 L
Melville United	3-0 W	1-1 D
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-0 W	1-5 L
Auckland City	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland United FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Auckland United FC

DWWDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
08/08	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
01/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	6-0	2	3	W
26/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
18/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
04/07	Cambridge FC New Zealand Cup	0-0	1-1	14	8	D
27/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	9	0	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
06/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Bay Olympic

LWWLLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-5	0	2	L
01/08	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-1	4-3	4	4	W
29/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	1-4	1-5	2	2	L
18/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
04/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-3	1-4	4	3	L
27/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-2	10	3	L
20/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
06/06	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
01/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup	1-3	2-6	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Auckland United FC vs Bay Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland United FC win (69%). Probabilities: Auckland United FC 69%, draw 17%, Bay Olympic 14%.

How many goals are expected in Auckland United FC vs Bay Olympic?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Auckland United FC 2.65 · Bay Olympic 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Auckland United FC vs Bay Olympic?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.