Football · Italy Serie D · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: Igea Virtus vs Nissa FC

Team pages: Igea Virtus · Nissa FC

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
Igea Virtus1.63
Nissa FC1.44
1X2
40% 28% 32%
Igea Virtus Draw Nissa FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Igea Virtus 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
WLWDLWDWWL
Nissa FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)
DWDWDWDWLL
Head-to-head
Igea Virtus 2–2–1 Nissa FC (5 last)
  • Nissa FC1-3Igea Virtus
  • Nissa FC1-1Igea Virtus
  • Igea Virtus3-2Nissa FC
  • Nissa FC3-0Igea Virtus
  • Igea Virtus0-0Nissa FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Igea Virtus 1545 · Nissa FC 1502
Igea VirtusDrawNissa FC
Our model41%26%33%
Market39%30%31%
Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Igea Virtus (rating 1545 vs 1502).
  • H2H favours Igea Virtus: 2-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Igea VirtusNissa FC
Goals for / against (FT)2 / 2.11.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.3 / 0.70.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/67/33%50/38/13%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 3.32.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.3 / 0.34.3 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Igea Virtus 2–2–1 Nissa FC

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DateHomeScoreAway
30/08/26
Italy Serie D Cup
Nissa FC1-3
HT 1-3
Igea Virtus
01/03/26
Italy Serie D
Nissa FC1-1Igea Virtus
26/10/25
Italy Serie D
Igea Virtus3-2Nissa FC
02/03/25
Italy Serie D
Nissa FC3-0
HT 2-0
Igea Virtus
27/10/24
Italy Serie D
Igea Virtus0-0Nissa FC

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Reggina 5500 15015
2 Sambiase 5410 9313
3 Igea Virtus 5311 131010
4 Vibonese 5311 13510
5 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 5230 829
6 Calcio Avola 1949 5302 8109
7 ASD Licata 5221 678
8 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 5212 987
9 Nissa FC 5212 887
10 Milazzo 5203 486
11 Siracusa 5320 844
12 Modica 5113 354
13 ASD CastrumFavara 5113 554
14 Città di Gela 5113 463
15 ASD Ragusa 5023 482
16 Vigor Lamezia 5023 5132
17 Enna Calcio 5014 0121
18 Trapani 5104 210-2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentIgea VirtusNissa FC
Reggina 0-2 L 0-0 D
Trapani 3-1 W 2-0 W
Vibonese 4-3 W 0-2 L
Vigor Lamezia 2-2 D 3-1 W
Calcio Avola 1949 4-2 W 2-4 L
Record vs common 3 W 1 D 1 L 2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Igea Virtus

WLWDLWDWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/09 Reggina
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-2 36 L
20/09 Trapani
Italy Serie D
– 3-1 –– W
16/09 Vibonese
Italy Serie D
1-1 4-3 35 W
12/09 Vigor Lamezia
Italy Serie D
– 2-2 –– D
06/09 Calcio Avola 1949
Italy Serie D
– 4-2 –– W
03/05 Vigor Lamezia
Italy Serie D
0-1 1-4 40 L
26/04 ACR Messina
Italy Serie D
– 1-1 –– D
22/04 Vibonese
Italy Serie D
– 2-1 –– W
19/04 AC Savoia 1908
Italy Serie D
– 0-3 –– L
29/03 ASD CastrumFavara
Italy Serie D
– 3-2 –– W

Nissa FC

DWDWDWDWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/09 Vibonese
Italy Serie D
0-1 0-2 85 L
20/09 Calcio Avola 1949
Italy Serie D
2-1 2-4 65 L
16/09 Trapani
Italy Serie D
1-0 2-0 67 W
13/09 ASD Licata
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-1 123 D
06/09 Vigor Lamezia
Italy Serie D
1-0 3-1 33 W
17/05 Reggina
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 37 D
03/05 ASD Paterno
Italy Serie D
– 4-1 –– W
26/04 Sambiase
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-1 15 D
19/04 Enna Calcio
Italy Serie D
3-0 3-0 52 W
12/04 Acireale
Italy Serie D
– 0-0 –– D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Igea Virtus vs Nissa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Igea Virtus win (40%). Probabilities: Igea Virtus 40%, draw 28%, Nissa FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Igea Virtus vs Nissa FC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Igea Virtus 1.63 · Nissa FC 1.44), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Igea Virtus vs Nissa FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.