Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: ASDC Gozzano vs Ligorna

Team pages: ASDC Gozzano · Ligorna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

ASDC Gozzano1.31

Ligorna1.44

1X2

33% 28% 39%

ASDC Gozzano Draw Ligorna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ASDC Gozzano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLDWWL

Ligorna 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLWWW

Head-to-head

ASDC Gozzano 4–1–1 Ligorna (6 last)

Ligorna0-1ASDC Gozzano
ASDC Gozzano3-0Ligorna
ASDC Gozzano2-0Ligorna
Ligorna1-4ASDC Gozzano
ASDC Gozzano1-1Ligorna
Ligorna1-0ASDC Gozzano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASDC Gozzano 1520 · Ligorna 1542

	ASDC Gozzano	Draw	Ligorna
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ASDC Gozzano: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASDC Gozzano	Ligorna
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	2.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.7 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +16’	2.70	3.25	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASDC Gozzano 4–1–1 Ligorna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Italy Serie D	Ligorna	0-1 HT 0-0	ASDC Gozzano
26/10/25 Italy Serie D	ASDC Gozzano	3-0	Ligorna
17/04/25 Italy Serie D	ASDC Gozzano	2-0	Ligorna
08/12/24 Italy Serie D	Ligorna	1-4	ASDC Gozzano
13/01/24 Italy Serie D	ASDC Gozzano	1-1	Ligorna
16/09/23 Italy Serie D	Ligorna	1-0 HT 0-0	ASDC Gozzano

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASDC Gozzano	Ligorna
Biellesse	1-4 L	1-3 L
Sanremese	2-1 W	2-2 D
Asti	0-2 L	1-1 D
Chisola	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ligorna (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASDC Gozzano

DDWLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-2	1-4	5	5	L
27/09	Sanremese Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
21/09	USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
16/09	Borgosesia Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Asti Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Cairese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Biellesse Italy Serie D	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
19/04	Chisola Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
12/04	Valenzana Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
02/04	Lavagnese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Ligorna

WDWWDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
27/09	Chisola Italy Serie D	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
20/09	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
16/09	Derthona Italy Serie D	1-2	2-3	8	4	L
13/09	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-1	1-3	5	8	L
06/09	Sanremese Italy Serie D	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/05	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	3-0	5-3	6	6	W
03/05	NovaRomentino Italy Serie D	3-0	9-1	9	1	W
26/04	Asti Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
19/04	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASDC Gozzano vs Ligorna?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ligorna win (39%). Probabilities: ASDC Gozzano 33%, draw 28%, Ligorna 39%.

How many goals are expected in ASDC Gozzano vs Ligorna?

The model expects 2.75 goals (ASDC Gozzano 1.31 · Ligorna 1.44), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ASDC Gozzano vs Ligorna?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.