Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Chisola vs Derthona

Team pages: Chisola · Derthona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Chisola1.35

Derthona1.14

1X2

41% 29% 31%

Chisola Draw Derthona

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chisola 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWDLW

Derthona 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Chisola 3–1–2 Derthona (6 last)

Derthona0-1Chisola
Chisola3-1Derthona
Chisola1-1Derthona
Derthona2-1Chisola
Chisola3-0Derthona
Derthona2-1Chisola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chisola 1528 · Derthona 1499

	Chisola	Draw	Derthona
Our model	40%	29%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chisola: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chisola	Derthona
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/14/29%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:05 +12’	2.20	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chisola 3–1–2 Derthona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Italy Serie D	Derthona	0-1 HT 0-0	Chisola
12/10/25 Italy Serie D	Chisola	3-1 HT 2-0	Derthona
19/01/25 Italy Serie D	Chisola	1-1	Derthona
22/09/24 Italy Serie D	Derthona	2-1	Chisola
31/01/24 Italy Serie D	Chisola	3-0 HT 2-0	Derthona
04/10/23 Italy Serie D	Derthona	2-1	Chisola

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chisola	Derthona
Celle Varazze FBC	4-0 W	1-0 W
Ligorna	1-2 L	3-2 W
Sanremese	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chisola

DLWWDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
27/09	Ligorna Italy Serie D	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
20/09	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
16/09	Sanremese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
06/09	Borgosesia Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Valenzana Italy Serie D	3-1	3-2	4	2	W
26/04	Lavagnese Italy Serie D	–	4-2	–	–	W
19/04	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
12/04	Ligorna Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D

Derthona

WLDDWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Alessandria Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
27/09	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Ligorna Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	10	4	W
13/09	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
06/09	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/04	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/04	Sanremese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chisola vs Derthona?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chisola win (41%). Probabilities: Chisola 41%, draw 29%, Derthona 31%.

How many goals are expected in Chisola vs Derthona?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Chisola 1.35 · Derthona 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chisola vs Derthona?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.