Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Pro Palazzo vs ASD Caldiero Terme

Team pages: Pro Palazzo · ASD Caldiero Terme

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Pro Palazzo1.32

ASD Caldiero Terme1.16

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Pro Palazzo Draw ASD Caldiero Terme

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pro Palazzo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWLDW

ASD Caldiero Terme 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDDWDW

Head-to-head

Pro Palazzo 0–2–0 ASD Caldiero Terme (2 last)

Pro Palazzo1-1ASD Caldiero Terme
ASD Caldiero Terme0-0Pro Palazzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pro Palazzo 1525 · ASD Caldiero Terme 1563

	Pro Palazzo	Draw	ASD Caldiero Terme
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pro Palazzo	ASD Caldiero Terme
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.4	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +4’	2.30	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pro Palazzo 0–2–0 ASD Caldiero Terme

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/24 Italy Serie D	Pro Palazzo	1-1 HT 0-0	ASD Caldiero Terme
15/10/23 Italy Serie D	ASD Caldiero Terme	0-0 HT 0-0	Pro Palazzo

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pro Palazzo	ASD Caldiero Terme
Scanzorosciate	1-1 D	1-0 W
ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone	0-1 L	1-0 W
US Fiorenzuola	1-0 W	1-1 D
AC Milan U23	2-0 W	3-4 L
Real Calepina FC	1-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Caldiero Terme (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pro Palazzo

WWLDLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
12/09	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	1-3	1-5	2	1	L
03/05	Tropical Coriano Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
19/04	A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
12/04	CS Trevigliese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	6	1	W

ASD Caldiero Terme

DDWDLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/09	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	1-0	3-4	9	3	L
03/05	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D	–	6-0	–	–	W
19/04	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
12/04	Sondrio Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pro Palazzo vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pro Palazzo win (39%). Probabilities: Pro Palazzo 39%, draw 30%, ASD Caldiero Terme 31%.

How many goals are expected in Pro Palazzo vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Pro Palazzo 1.32 · ASD Caldiero Terme 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pro Palazzo vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.