Football · Italy Serie D · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: AC Mestre vs Unione La Rocca Altavilla

Team pages: AC Mestre · Unione La Rocca Altavilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.84Total

AC Mestre1.1

Unione La Rocca Altavilla0.73

1X2

44% 32% 24%

AC Mestre Draw Unione La Rocca Altavilla

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Mestre 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWWDD

Unione La Rocca Altavilla 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWDDL

Head-to-head

AC Mestre 0–1–1 Unione La Rocca Altavilla (2 last)

Unione La Rocca Altavilla1-0AC Mestre
AC Mestre1-1Unione La Rocca Altavilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Mestre 1522 · Unione La Rocca Altavilla 1476

	AC Mestre	Draw	Unione La Rocca Altavilla
Our model	43%	34%	23%
Market	45%	30%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Mestre (rating 1522 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Mestre	Unione La Rocca Altavilla
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.2	0.8 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.00 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
2	3.60 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:39 +11’	2.00	3.00	3.60
15:50 +5’	1.85▼	3.10▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Mestre 0–1–1 Unione La Rocca Altavilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Italy Serie D	Unione La Rocca Altavilla	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Mestre
14/12/25 Italy Serie D	AC Mestre	1-1 HT 1-0	Unione La Rocca Altavilla

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	Nissa FC	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	Igea Virtus	3	2	1	0	10	7	7
4	Sambiase	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Milazzo	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	3	1	2	0	7	2	5
7	Vibonese	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
8	ASD CastrumFavara	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	Calcio Avola 1949	3	1	0	2	3	8	3
11	ASD Ragusa	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
11	Vigor Lamezia	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
13	Città di Gela	3	1	0	2	4	5	2
14	ASD Licata	3	0	2	1	2	7	2
15	Modica	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	Siracusa	3	2	1	0	7	4	0
17	Enna Calcio	3	0	0	3	0	9	0
18	Trapani	3	0	0	3	0	7	-5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Mestre	Unione La Rocca Altavilla
Treviso	1-0 W	0-1 L
Legnago Salus	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AC Mestre (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Mestre

WWLWDLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Bassano Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Luparense FC Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Calvi Noale Italy Serie D	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
03/05	Treviso Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Unione La Rocca Altavilla Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/04	Legnago Salus Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Luparense FC Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/03	Campodarsego Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
15/03	Calvi Noale Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/03	US Adriese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

Unione La Rocca Altavilla

LDLWDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Legnago Salus Italy Serie D	1-2	2-3	3	6	L
13/09	ASD Lavarian Mortean Esperia Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
06/09	Triestina Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/05	FCD Conegliano Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	AC Mestre Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
19/04	FC Obermais Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	ASD San Luigi Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/04	Treviso Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
29/03	Cjarlins Muzane Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
22/03	Legnago Salus Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Mestre vs Unione La Rocca Altavilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Mestre win (44%). Probabilities: AC Mestre 44%, draw 32%, Unione La Rocca Altavilla 24%.

How many goals are expected in AC Mestre vs Unione La Rocca Altavilla?

The model expects 1.84 goals (AC Mestre 1.1 · Unione La Rocca Altavilla 0.73), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Mestre vs Unione La Rocca Altavilla?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.