Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: AC Leon Monza Brianza vs ASD Villa D'Alme

Team pages: AC Leon Monza Brianza · ASD Villa D'Alme

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

AC Leon Monza Brianza1.43

ASD Villa D'Alme0.93

1X2

48% 28% 24%

AC Leon Monza Brianza Draw ASD Villa D'Alme

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Leon Monza Brianza 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLWDDD

ASD Villa D'Alme 0-7-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDLLDDDL

Head-to-head

AC Leon Monza Brianza 0–1–3 ASD Villa D'Alme (4 last)

AC Leon Monza Brianza1-2ASD Villa D'Alme
ASD Villa D'Alme1-0AC Leon Monza Brianza
ASD Villa D'Alme5-0AC Leon Monza Brianza
AC Leon Monza Brianza1-1ASD Villa D'Alme

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Leon Monza Brianza 1475 · ASD Villa D'Alme 1490

	AC Leon Monza Brianza	Draw	ASD Villa D'Alme
Our model	47%	29%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ASD Villa D'Alme: 3-1-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Leon Monza Brianza	ASD Villa D'Alme
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	0/86/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	2.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +12’	1.85	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Leon Monza Brianza 0–1–3 ASD Villa D'Alme

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Italy Serie D	AC Leon Monza Brianza	1-2 HT 0-0	ASD Villa D'Alme
26/10/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Villa D'Alme	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Leon Monza Brianza
03/04/22 Italy Serie D	ASD Villa D'Alme	5-0 HT 3-0	AC Leon Monza Brianza
21/11/21 Italy Serie D	AC Leon Monza Brianza	1-1	ASD Villa D'Alme

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Leon Monza Brianza

WWLDDLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/09	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
03/05	USD Casatese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
19/04	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
02/04	Pavia Italy Serie D	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
22/03	AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D	2-2	3-2	7	2	W

ASD Villa D'Alme

DDDDLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	0-0	1-2	11	6	L
16/09	Tritium Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
12/09	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
06/09	Virtus Verona Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	US Breno Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Oltrepò Italy Serie D	0-0	1-3	5	3	L
19/04	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
12/04	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
12/04	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
02/04	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Leon Monza Brianza vs ASD Villa D'Alme?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Leon Monza Brianza win (48%). Probabilities: AC Leon Monza Brianza 48%, draw 28%, ASD Villa D'Alme 24%.

How many goals are expected in AC Leon Monza Brianza vs ASD Villa D'Alme?

The model expects 2.36 goals (AC Leon Monza Brianza 1.43 · ASD Villa D'Alme 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Leon Monza Brianza vs ASD Villa D'Alme?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.