Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00
Prediction: Pistoiese vs A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Team pages: A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Pistoiese2.3
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo0.65
1X2
Pistoiese
Draw
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Pistoiese
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pistoiese
3–1–0
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
(4 last)
- A.C.D. Sant'Angelo1-3Pistoiese
- Pistoiese4-1A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
- Pistoiese2-2A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
- A.C.D. Sant'Angelo0-1Pistoiese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pistoiese 1598 · A.C.D. Sant'Angelo 1519
| Pistoiese | Draw | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | 74% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pistoiese (rating 1598 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Pistoiese: 3-1-0.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pistoiese | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 6.8 | 3.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pistoiese 3–1–0 A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Italy Serie D | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | 1-3 | Pistoiese |
| 16/11/25 Italy Serie D | Pistoiese | 4-1 HT 3-1 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo |
| 25/01/23 Italy Serie D | Pistoiese | 2-2 HT 0-0 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo |
| 21/09/22 Italy Serie D | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pistoiese |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Igea Virtus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 3 | Sambiase | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Nissa FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Milazzo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | ASD Licata | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 10 | Modica | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | ASD CastrumFavara | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Città di Gela | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | ASD Ragusa | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 15 | Vigor Lamezia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 16 | Siracusa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Enna Calcio | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| 18 | Trapani | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pistoiese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Desenzano Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Tropical Coriano Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Pro Sesto Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 29/03 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Pavia Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/09 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Lentigione Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Tuttocuoio Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Piacenza Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/04 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pistoiese vs A.C.D. Sant'Angelo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pistoiese win (74%). Probabilities: Pistoiese 74%, draw 18%, A.C.D. Sant'Angelo 8%.
How many goals are expected in Pistoiese vs A.C.D. Sant'Angelo?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Pistoiese 2.3 · A.C.D. Sant'Angelo 0.65), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pistoiese vs A.C.D. Sant'Angelo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.