Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:30

Prediction: Monastir Kosmoto vs Cynthialbalonga

Team pages: Monastir Kosmoto · Cynthialbalonga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Monastir Kosmoto1.66

Cynthialbalonga1.32

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Monastir Kosmoto Draw Cynthialbalonga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Monastir Kosmoto 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWWLW

Cynthialbalonga 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWWLD

Head-to-head

Monastir Kosmoto 1–1–0 Cynthialbalonga (2 last)

Cynthialbalonga1-1Monastir Kosmoto
Monastir Kosmoto2-1Cynthialbalonga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monastir Kosmoto 1557 · Cynthialbalonga 1491

	Monastir Kosmoto	Draw	Cynthialbalonga
Our model	44%	26%	29%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monastir Kosmoto (rating 1557 vs 1491).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monastir Kosmoto	Cynthialbalonga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +7’	2.05	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:36 +40’	2.05	3.21	3.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monastir Kosmoto 1–1–0 Cynthialbalonga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Italy Serie D	Cynthialbalonga	1-1 HT 0-0	Monastir Kosmoto
06/12/25 Italy Serie D	Monastir Kosmoto	2-1 HT 0-0	Cynthialbalonga

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	ASD Licata	5	2	2	1	6	7	8
5	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
6	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
8	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
9	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	5	0	1	4	0	12	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monastir Kosmoto	Cynthialbalonga
ASD Aranova	2-1 W	0-1 L
Atletico Lodigiani	5-1 W	3-2 W
Sarrabus Ogliastra	2-1 W	1-1 D
ASD Trastevere	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Monastir Kosmoto (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monastir Kosmoto

DDDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	ASD Aranova Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Anzio Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
12/09	Atletico Lodigiani Italy Serie D	2-0	5-1	4	5	W
06/09	Sarrabus Ogliastra Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/04	Nocerina Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/04	Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/04	ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
02/04	Anzio Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	2-2	2-2	8	1	D

Cynthialbalonga

LWWDLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sarrabus Ogliastra Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	ASD Aranova Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Citta di Anagni Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
06/09	Atletico Lodigiani Italy Serie D	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
03/05	Scafatese Italy Serie D	–	1-4	–	–	L
26/04	ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
18/04	Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/04	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/04	Ischia Italy Serie D	–	4-0	–	–	W
28/03	Atletico Lodigiani Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monastir Kosmoto vs Cynthialbalonga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monastir Kosmoto win (44%). Probabilities: Monastir Kosmoto 44%, draw 27%, Cynthialbalonga 29%.

How many goals are expected in Monastir Kosmoto vs Cynthialbalonga?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Monastir Kosmoto 1.66 · Cynthialbalonga 1.32), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Monastir Kosmoto vs Cynthialbalonga?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.