Football · Italy Serie D · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Robur Siena vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Team pages: Robur Siena · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Robur Siena1.57
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi0.79
1X2
Robur Siena
Draw
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Robur Siena
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Robur Siena
4–1–1
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
(6 last)
- Robur Siena0-0Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
- Aquila 1902 Montevarchi1-0Robur Siena
- Aquila 1902 Montevarchi0-1Robur Siena
- Robur Siena1-0Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
- Aquila 1902 Montevarchi1-2Robur Siena
- Robur Siena1-0Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Robur Siena 1577 · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 1516
| Robur Siena | Draw | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Robur Siena (rating 1577 vs 1516).
- H2H favours Robur Siena: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Robur Siena | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 43/43/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 8.5 | 2.2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Robur Siena 4–1–1 Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Italy Serie D | Robur Siena | 0-0 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi |
| 07/12/25 Italy Serie D | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi | 1-0 | Robur Siena |
| 12/01/25 Italy Serie D | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi | 0-1 | Robur Siena |
| 15/09/24 Italy Serie D | Robur Siena | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi |
| 22/01/23 Italy Serie C Group B | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Robur Siena |
| 18/09/22 Italy Serie C Group B | Robur Siena | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Nissa FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Igea Virtus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | Sambiase | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Milazzo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Vibonese | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | ASD CastrumFavara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 11 | ASD Ragusa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 11 | Vigor Lamezia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 13 | Città di Gela | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 14 | ASD Licata | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| 15 | Modica | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Siracusa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Enna Calcio | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Trapani | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Robur Siena | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi |
|---|---|---|
| ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| ASD Seravezza Calcio | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Prato | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Robur Siena (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Robur Siena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Mezzolara Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | Scandicci Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 21 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D |
– | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Camaiore Italy Serie D |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/03 | San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Foligno Italy Serie D |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | Prato Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | D |
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Lucchese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Prato Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Robur Siena Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/04 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Poggibonsi Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Gavorrano Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Robur Siena vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Robur Siena win (55%). Probabilities: Robur Siena 55%, draw 26%, Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 18%.
How many goals are expected in Robur Siena vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Robur Siena 1.57 · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 0.79), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Robur Siena vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.