Football · Italy Serie D · 04/10, 15:00
Prediction: Martina vs FC Francavilla
Team pages: Martina
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Martina1.66
FC Francavilla0.85
1X2
Martina
Draw
FC Francavilla
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Martina
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
FC Francavilla
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Martina
4–2–0
FC Francavilla
(6 last)
- FC Francavilla1-2Martina
- FC Francavilla1-1Martina
- Martina1-0FC Francavilla
- Martina4-0FC Francavilla
- FC Francavilla1-2Martina
- FC Francavilla3-3Martina
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martina 1526 · FC Francavilla 1460
| Martina | Draw | FC Francavilla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martina (rating 1526 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Martina: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Martina | FC Francavilla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/25/38% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 0.3 / 1.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.5 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Martina 4–2–0 FC Francavilla
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Italy Serie D | FC Francavilla | 1-2 | Martina |
| 22/10/25 Italy Serie D Cup | FC Francavilla | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Martina |
| 05/10/25 Italy Serie D | Martina | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Francavilla |
| 17/04/25 Italy Serie D | Martina | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FC Francavilla |
| 08/12/24 Italy Serie D | FC Francavilla | 1-2 | Martina |
| 07/05/23 Italy Serie D | FC Francavilla | 3-3 | Martina |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Igea Virtus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | ASD Licata | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Nissa FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Milazzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Siracusa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Modica | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | ASD CastrumFavara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Città di Gela | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | ASD Ragusa | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Vigor Lamezia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
| 17 | Enna Calcio | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 1 |
| 18 | Trapani | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | AC Nardo Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/09 | Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | SS Turris Calcio Italy Serie D |
– | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Paganese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | SS Nola 1925 Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | ASD Heraclea Italy Serie D |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Citta di Fasano Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
FC Francavilla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Brindisi FC Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | Melfi Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/09 | US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Bisceglie 1913 Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Ischia Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Sarnese Italy Serie D |
2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Real Acerrana Italy Serie D |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/04 | Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martina vs FC Francavilla?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Martina win (56%). Probabilities: Martina 56%, draw 26%, FC Francavilla 19%.
How many goals are expected in Martina vs FC Francavilla?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Martina 1.66 · FC Francavilla 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Martina vs FC Francavilla?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.