Football · Iraq Stars League · 16/08, 20:00

Prediction: Al Shorta SC vs Karbalaa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Al Shorta SC2.03

Karbalaa FC0.56

1X2

72% 20% 9%

Al Shorta SC Draw Karbalaa FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shorta SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Karbalaa FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLDWWW

Head-to-head

Al Shorta SC 5–0 Karbalaa FC (5 last)

Al Shorta SC4-0Karbalaa FC
Karbalaa FC0-1Al Shorta SC
Karbalaa FC1-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC2-1Karbalaa FC
Al Shorta SC3-1Karbalaa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shorta SC 1561 · Karbalaa FC 1527

	Al Shorta SC	Draw	Karbalaa FC
Our model	71%	20%	8%
Market	72%	19%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Shorta SC: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shorta SC	Karbalaa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X4.75

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +2’	1.25	4.75	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shorta SC 5–0–0 Karbalaa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	4-0 HT 2-0	Karbalaa FC
18/01/25 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
17/05/24 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
30/10/23 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	2-1 HT 0-0	Karbalaa FC
11/02/23 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	3-1 HT 1-1	Karbalaa FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Naft SC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
2	Newroz SC	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
4	Al Jolan SC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Naft Maysan	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Al Karkh	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Al Shorta SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/06	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
28/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
20/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
15/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
10/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
01/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
26/04	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/04	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	10	3	W
17/04	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Karbalaa FC

WLDDLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Play Offs	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
08/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Play Offs	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Al-Hudood SC Iraq Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
25/05	Kadhimiya SC Iraq Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/03	Al Jolan SC Iraq Premier Division	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
15/03	Al-Hudood SC Iraq Premier Division	1-2	3-5	1	6	L
15/02	Al-Jaish SC Iraq Premier Division	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/01	Al Fahad Iraq Premier Division	2-0	2-2	1	9	D
18/01	Al Ramadi SC Iraq Premier Division	1-1	2-3	3	8	L
15/12	Naft Al-Wasat Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shorta SC vs Karbalaa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Shorta SC win (72%). Probabilities: Al Shorta SC 72%, draw 20%, Karbalaa FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shorta SC vs Karbalaa FC?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Al Shorta SC 2.03 · Karbalaa FC 0.56), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shorta SC vs Karbalaa FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.