Football · Iraq Stars League · 25/08, 17:45

Prediction: Zakho vs Diyala FC

Team pages: Zakho · Diyala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Zakho1.68

Diyala FC0.86

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Zakho Draw Diyala FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Zakho 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Diyala FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Zakho 1–3 Diyala FC (4 last)

Zakho1-2Diyala FC
Diyala FC2-1Zakho
Zakho0-1Diyala FC
Diyala FC1-4Zakho

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zakho 1457 · Diyala FC 1465

	Zakho	Draw	Diyala FC
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Diyala FC: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zakho	Diyala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.5 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	6.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.40

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +2’	1.60	3.40	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zakho 1–0–3 Diyala FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	1-2 HT 0-1	Diyala FC
25/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Zakho
26/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	0-1 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
09/01/25 Iraq League	Diyala FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Zakho

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zakho

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
20/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
16/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
11/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
06/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-3	3	7	L
01/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
27/04	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	4	12	D

Diyala FC

LLDWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
27/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
11/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
06/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
01/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zakho vs Diyala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zakho win (56%). Probabilities: Zakho 56%, draw 26%, Diyala FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Zakho vs Diyala FC?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Zakho 1.68 · Diyala FC 0.86), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zakho vs Diyala FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.