Football · Iraq Stars League · 25/08, 20:00

Prediction: Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan

Team pages: Al Zawra'a · Naft Maysan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Al Zawra'a1.58

Naft Maysan0.83

1X2

54% 27% 19%

Al Zawra'a Draw Naft Maysan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Zawra'a 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLLLDD

Naft Maysan 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLWDD

Head-to-head

Al Zawra'a 3–3–0 Naft Maysan (6 last)

Al Zawra'a1-1Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan2-2Al Zawra'a
Naft Maysan0-2Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a1-0Naft Maysan
Al Zawra'a3-1Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan1-1Al Zawra'a

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Zawra'a 1487 · Naft Maysan 1514

	Al Zawra'a	Draw	Naft Maysan
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Zawra'a: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Zawra'a	Naft Maysan
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +11’	1.65	3.40	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Zawra'a 3–3–0 Naft Maysan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	1-1 HT 1-1	Naft Maysan
09/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	2-2 HT 1-1	Al Zawra'a
13/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Naft Maysan	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Zawra'a
28/01/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	1-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
09/05/24 Iraq League	Al Zawra'a	3-1 HT 1-1	Naft Maysan
30/10/23 Iraq League	Naft Maysan	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Zawra'a

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Zawra'a	Naft Maysan
Al Najaf	0-1 L	2-1 W
Al Naft SC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-2 L	0-2 L
Al Qasim SC	1-1 D	5-2 W
Duhok	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Naft Maysan (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Zawra'a

DDWWDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/06	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	17	3	L
27/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
14/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
01/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	10	6	D
26/04	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	6	4	D

Naft Maysan

LLWDWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
14/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
28/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	5-2	10	3	W
14/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
10/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
05/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
01/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Zawra'a win (54%). Probabilities: Al Zawra'a 54%, draw 27%, Naft Maysan 19%.

How many goals are expected in Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Al Zawra'a 1.58 · Naft Maysan 0.83), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.