Football · Iraq Stars League · 25/08, 17:30

Prediction: Al Karkh vs Erbil SC

Team pages: Al Karkh · Erbil SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Al Karkh1.04

Erbil SC1.47

1X2

26% 29% 46%

Al Karkh Draw Erbil SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karkh 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDWLDL

Erbil SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Al Karkh 1–2–3 Erbil SC (6 last)

Erbil SC1-0Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-1Erbil SC
Erbil SC1-3Al Karkh
Al Karkh2-4Erbil SC
Al Karkh0-0Erbil SC
Al Karkh0-1Erbil SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karkh 1515 · Erbil SC 1574

	Al Karkh	Draw	Erbil SC
Our model	26%	29%	46%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1515 vs 1574).
H2H favours Erbil SC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karkh	Erbil SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.10

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +2’	3.50	3.10	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karkh 1–2–3 Erbil SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Karkh
27/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 1-1	Erbil SC
29/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	1-3 HT 1-1	Al Karkh
19/01/25 Iraq League	Al Karkh	2-4 HT 1-2	Erbil SC
08/05/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	0-0 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
14/03/24 Iraq Cup	Al Karkh	0-1 HT 0-1	Erbil SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karkh	Erbil SC
Al Talaba	1-1 D	3-2 W
Al Shorta SC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Al Najaf	5-2 W	4-1 W
Amanat Baghdad	2-1 W	3-1 W
Zakho	3-1 W	2-1 W
Al Kahrabaa	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karkh

DWLWWDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
20/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
15/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
11/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
06/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	3-1	2	7	W
02/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/04	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
22/04	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D

Erbil SC

WWDWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
20/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
16/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	3-1	4-1	6	5	W
06/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
02/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
27/04	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-2	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karkh vs Erbil SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Erbil SC win (46%). Probabilities: Al Karkh 26%, draw 29%, Erbil SC 46%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karkh vs Erbil SC?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Al Karkh 1.04 · Erbil SC 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karkh vs Erbil SC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.