Football · Iraq Stars League · 16/08, 20:00

Prediction: Erbil SC vs Al Kahrabaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Erbil SC1.83

Al Kahrabaa0.96

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Erbil SC Draw Al Kahrabaa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Erbil SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWLWWW

Al Kahrabaa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Erbil SC 2–2–2 Al Kahrabaa (6 last)

Erbil SC2-2Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa0-0Erbil SC
Al Kahrabaa3-1Erbil SC
Erbil SC4-3Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa3-1Erbil SC
Erbil SC1-0Al Kahrabaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erbil SC 1577 · Al Kahrabaa 1497

	Erbil SC	Draw	Al Kahrabaa
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1577 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erbil SC	Al Kahrabaa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +2’	1.57	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Erbil SC 2–2–2 Al Kahrabaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	2-2 HT 0-1	Al Kahrabaa
27/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	0-0 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
30/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	3-1 HT 1-1	Erbil SC
11/12/24 Iraq League	Erbil SC	4-3 HT 1-1	Al Kahrabaa
07/06/24 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	3-1 HT 2-0	Erbil SC
03/11/23 Iraq League	Erbil SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Kahrabaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Naft SC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
2	Newroz SC	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
4	Al Jolan SC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Naft Maysan	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Al Karkh	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erbil SC	Al Kahrabaa
Amanat Baghdad	3-1 W	1-0 W
Zakho	2-1 W	1-2 L
Newroz SC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Al Karkh	1-0 W	1-3 L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erbil SC

WDWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
20/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
16/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	3-1	4-1	6	5	W
06/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
02/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
27/04	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-2	1	4	W
23/04	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Al Kahrabaa

WLLLLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
11/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
06/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	7	D
27/04	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
23/04	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
17/04	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-3	3	5	L
13/04	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	2	7	L
09/04	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erbil SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erbil SC win (57%). Probabilities: Erbil SC 57%, draw 24%, Al Kahrabaa 19%.

How many goals are expected in Erbil SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Erbil SC 1.83 · Al Kahrabaa 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Erbil SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.