Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 08/11, 12:15

Prediction: E.F. Puebla de la Calzada vs CD Cabeza del Buey

Team pages: E.F. Puebla de la Calzada · CD Cabeza del Buey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada1.23

CD Cabeza del Buey1.19

1X2

37% 29% 34%

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Draw CD Cabeza del Buey

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLLWW

CD Cabeza del Buey 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDDWDW

Head-to-head

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 0–1–1 CD Cabeza del Buey (2 last)

CD Cabeza del Buey1-0E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada0-0CD Cabeza del Buey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 1499 · CD Cabeza del Buey 1519

	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	Draw	CD Cabeza del Buey
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	CD Cabeza del Buey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	8 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +7’	2.40	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 0–1–1 CD Cabeza del Buey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	CD Cabeza del Buey	1-0	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	0-0	CD Cabeza del Buey

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	9	7	1	1	19	7	22
2	AD Llerenense	9	6	3	0	10	2	21
3	Moralo	9	5	3	1	15	10	18
4	Castuera	9	5	2	2	16	6	17
5	Villanovense	9	5	2	2	14	5	17
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	9	4	2	3	15	11	14
7	CD Cabeza del Buey	9	3	4	2	14	12	13
8	CD Zafra	9	3	3	3	14	10	12
9	Jerez	9	3	3	3	11	13	12
10	CD Quintana	9	3	3	3	9	8	12
11	CD Gevora	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
12	SP Villafranca	9	3	1	5	12	14	10
13	CF Jaraiz	9	2	3	4	12	12	9
14	Santa Amalia	9	1	6	2	9	11	9
15	Plasencia	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
16	UD Montijo	9	2	2	5	8	14	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	9	0	4	5	10	24	4
18	CD Guadiana	9	0	1	8	3	25	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	CD Cabeza del Buey
UD Montijo	3-1 W	3-1 W
Jerez	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: E.F. Puebla de la Calzada (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada

LDWWLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/10	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
11/10	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-3	–	–	L
03/10	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
19/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-0	–	–	W
13/09	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/05	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L

CD Cabeza del Buey

WWLLDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/10	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	3-3	4	10	D
18/10	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
04/10	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in E.F. Puebla de la Calzada vs CD Cabeza del Buey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a E.F. Puebla de la Calzada win (37%). Probabilities: E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 37%, draw 29%, CD Cabeza del Buey 34%.

How many goals are expected in E.F. Puebla de la Calzada vs CD Cabeza del Buey?

The model expects 2.42 goals (E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 1.23 · CD Cabeza del Buey 1.19), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in E.F. Puebla de la Calzada vs CD Cabeza del Buey?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.