Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: CD Guadiana vs CD Gevora

Team pages: CD Gevora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

CD Guadiana1.14

CD Gevora1.76

1X2

24% 25% 51%

CD Guadiana Draw CD Gevora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Guadiana 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLLLL

CD Gevora 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Guadiana 1378 · CD Gevora 1489

	CD Guadiana	Draw	CD Gevora
Our model	24%	26%	51%
Market	24%	24%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Gevora (rating 1378 vs 1489).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Guadiana	CD Gevora
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 2.9	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.5 / 2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.70

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +14’	3.70	3.70	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
2	AD Llerenense	10	6	4	0	11	3	22
3	Moralo	10	6	3	1	16	10	21
4	Castuera	10	6	2	2	18	6	20
5	Villanovense	10	5	3	2	14	5	18
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
7	CD Zafra	10	3	4	3	14	10	13
8	CD Cabeza del Buey	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
9	SP Villafranca	10	4	1	5	17	17	13
10	CD Quintana	10	3	4	3	10	9	13
11	CF Jaraiz	10	3	3	4	14	12	12
12	Santa Amalia	10	2	6	2	13	11	12
13	CD Gevora	10	3	3	4	15	17	12
14	Jerez	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
15	Plasencia	10	1	5	4	10	17	8
16	UD Montijo	10	2	2	6	8	16	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	10	0	4	6	10	25	4
18	CD Guadiana	10	0	1	9	3	29	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Guadiana	CD Gevora
CD Azuaga	0-4 L	1-1 D
CD Cabeza del Buey	1-1 D	2-3 L
UD Montijo	1-3 L	2-0 W
SP Villafranca	0-2 L	1-2 L
AD Llerenense	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Gevora (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Guadiana

LLLDLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-4	1	5	L
01/11	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/10	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-4	–	–	L
18/10	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/10	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
04/10	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-4	–	–	L
27/09	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/09	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
06/09	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L

CD Gevora

LWDWDLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/10	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/10	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
11/10	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
04/10	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	4-2	–	–	W
05/09	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Guadiana vs CD Gevora?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Gevora win (51%). Probabilities: CD Guadiana 24%, draw 25%, CD Gevora 51%.

How many goals are expected in CD Guadiana vs CD Gevora?

The model expects 2.9 goals (CD Guadiana 1.14 · CD Gevora 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Guadiana vs CD Gevora?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.