Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 08/11, 17:30

Prediction: At. Pueblonuevo vs Moralo

Team pages: At. Pueblonuevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

At. Pueblonuevo1.17

Moralo1.65

1X2

26% 27% 47%

At. Pueblonuevo Draw Moralo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

At. Pueblonuevo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDLLLD

Moralo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWWDL

Head-to-head

At. Pueblonuevo 2–4 Moralo (6 last)

Moralo2-0At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo1-0Moralo
Moralo4-0At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo4-2Moralo
Moralo3-1At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo0-2Moralo

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moralo (rating 1424 vs 1551).
H2H favours Moralo: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	At. Pueblonuevo	Moralo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.3	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4	1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.94

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:11

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.23 → 5.23	Pinn 5.23
X	3.65 → 3.65	Pinn 3.65
2	1.58 → 1.58	Pinn 1.58

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:44 +27’	5.23	3.65	1.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · At. Pueblonuevo 2–0–4 Moralo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Moralo	2-0 HT 2-0	At. Pueblonuevo
04/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	1-0	Moralo
18/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Moralo	4-0 HT 0-0	At. Pueblonuevo
08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	4-2	Moralo
21/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	Moralo	3-1	At. Pueblonuevo
10/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	0-2 HT 0-1	Moralo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	9	7	1	1	19	7	22
2	AD Llerenense	9	6	3	0	10	2	21
3	Moralo	9	5	3	1	15	10	18
4	Castuera	9	5	2	2	16	6	17
5	Villanovense	9	5	2	2	14	5	17
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	9	4	2	3	15	11	14
7	CD Cabeza del Buey	9	3	4	2	14	12	13
8	CD Zafra	9	3	3	3	14	10	12
9	Jerez	9	3	3	3	11	13	12
10	CD Quintana	9	3	3	3	9	8	12
11	CD Gevora	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
12	SP Villafranca	9	3	1	5	12	14	10
13	CF Jaraiz	9	2	3	4	12	12	9
14	Santa Amalia	9	1	6	2	9	11	9
15	Plasencia	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
16	UD Montijo	9	2	2	5	8	14	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	9	0	4	5	10	24	4
18	CD Guadiana	9	0	1	8	3	25	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	At. Pueblonuevo	Moralo
CD Quintana	1-4 L	0-2 L
Plasencia	3-4 L	1-1 D
Castuera	0-5 L	2-1 W
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	0-0 D	3-1 W
CD Gevora	1-3 L	1-1 D
Santa Amalia	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Zafra	1-4 L	2-0 W
CF Jaraiz	2-2 D	3-2 W
CD Azuaga	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Moralo (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

At. Pueblonuevo

WDLDLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/10	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
18/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-4	–	–	L
11/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-5	–	–	L
03/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
13/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	2-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W

Moralo

WWWWDDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	4	6	W
13/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/05	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in At. Pueblonuevo vs Moralo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moralo win (47%). Probabilities: At. Pueblonuevo 26%, draw 27%, Moralo 47%.

How many goals are expected in At. Pueblonuevo vs Moralo?

The model expects 2.82 goals (At. Pueblonuevo 1.17 · Moralo 1.65), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in At. Pueblonuevo vs Moralo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.