Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Villanovense vs Santa Amalia

Team pages: Villanovense · Santa Amalia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Villanovense1.55

Santa Amalia0.69

1X2

57% 28% 15%

Villanovense Draw Santa Amalia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Villanovense 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWDD

Santa Amalia 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLDLDDW

Head-to-head

Villanovense 2–0 Santa Amalia (2 last)

Santa Amalia0-1Villanovense
Villanovense2-1Santa Amalia

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villanovense (rating 1556 vs 1483).
H2H favours Villanovense: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villanovense	Santa Amalia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.3	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	6.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.91

Under 2.51.84

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:04

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.47 → 1.47	Pinn 1.47
X	3.88 → 3.88	Pinn 3.88
2	6.27 → 6.27	Pinn 6.27

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:59 +5’	1.47	3.88	6.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villanovense 2–0–0 Santa Amalia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Santa Amalia	0-1 HT 0-0	Villanovense
05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Villanovense	2-1	Santa Amalia

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
2	AD Llerenense	10	6	4	0	11	3	22
3	Moralo	10	6	3	1	16	10	21
4	Castuera	10	6	2	2	18	6	20
5	Villanovense	10	5	3	2	14	5	18
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
7	CD Zafra	10	3	4	3	14	10	13
8	CD Cabeza del Buey	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
9	SP Villafranca	10	4	1	5	17	17	13
10	CD Quintana	10	3	4	3	10	9	13
11	CF Jaraiz	10	3	3	4	14	12	12
12	Santa Amalia	10	2	6	2	13	11	12
13	CD Gevora	10	3	3	4	15	17	12
14	Jerez	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
15	Plasencia	10	1	5	4	10	17	8
16	UD Montijo	10	2	2	6	8	16	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	10	0	4	6	10	25	4
18	CD Guadiana	10	0	1	9	3	29	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villanovense	Santa Amalia
CD Guadiana	2-0 W	4-0 W
CD Azuaga	2-0 W	0-0 D
CD Cabeza del Buey	1-1 D	3-3 D
UD Montijo	2-0 W	0-0 D
SP Villafranca	1-0 W	1-3 L
AD Llerenense	0-1 L	0-3 L
Moralo	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Villanovense (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villanovense

LLWWDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
01/11	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
25/10	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	5-1	6	5	W
18/10	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
04/10	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L

Santa Amalia

DWDDLDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	4-0	6	5	W
01/11	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/10	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	3-3	4	10	D
21/10	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/10	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
09/10	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	1-3	9	7	L
27/09	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
13/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	3-0	6	13	W
06/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villanovense vs Santa Amalia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villanovense win (57%). Probabilities: Villanovense 57%, draw 28%, Santa Amalia 15%.

How many goals are expected in Villanovense vs Santa Amalia?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Villanovense 1.55 · Santa Amalia 0.69), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Villanovense vs Santa Amalia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.