Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 15/11, 12:30

Prediction: Jerez vs Moralo

Team pages: Jerez · Moralo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Jerez1.07

Moralo1.29

1X2

30% 29% 41%

Jerez Draw Moralo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Jerez 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDLDL

Moralo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Jerez 2–2–2 Moralo (6 last)

Moralo0-1Jerez
Jerez2-2Moralo
Jerez3-2Moralo
Moralo1-1Jerez
Moralo2-1Jerez
Jerez2-6Moralo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jerez 1492 · Moralo 1543

	Jerez	Draw	Moralo
Our model	29%	30%	40%
Market	31%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moralo (rating 1492 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jerez	Moralo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	– / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.25

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.89 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.26
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +1’	2.90	3.25	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +16’	3.89	3.26	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jerez 2–2–2 Moralo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Moralo	0-1	Jerez
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Jerez	2-2	Moralo
30/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Jerez	3-2	Moralo
16/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	Moralo	1-1 HT 1-1	Jerez
28/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	Moralo	2-1	Jerez
16/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 14	Jerez	2-6 HT 2-3	Moralo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
2	AD Llerenense	10	6	4	0	11	3	22
3	Moralo	10	6	3	1	16	10	21
4	Castuera	10	6	2	2	18	6	20
5	Villanovense	10	5	3	2	14	5	18
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
7	CD Zafra	10	3	4	3	14	10	13
8	CD Cabeza del Buey	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
9	SP Villafranca	10	4	1	5	17	17	13
10	CD Quintana	10	3	4	3	10	9	13
11	CF Jaraiz	10	3	3	4	14	12	12
12	Santa Amalia	10	2	6	2	13	11	12
13	CD Gevora	10	3	3	4	15	17	12
14	Jerez	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
15	Plasencia	10	1	5	4	10	17	8
16	UD Montijo	10	2	2	6	8	16	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	10	0	4	6	10	25	4
18	CD Guadiana	10	0	1	9	3	29	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jerez	Moralo
CF Jaraiz	0-2 L	3-2 W
At. Pueblonuevo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Villanovense	1-5 L	2-1 W
Plasencia	0-0 D	1-1 D
CD Quintana	1-0 W	0-2 L
Castuera	1-2 L	2-1 W
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Moralo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jerez

DWLLWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/11	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
25/10	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	1-5	2	5	L
21/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/10	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	4-1	–	–	W
27/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-2	–	–	D

Moralo

WWWDDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/11	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	4	6	W
13/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jerez vs Moralo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moralo win (41%). Probabilities: Jerez 30%, draw 29%, Moralo 41%.

How many goals are expected in Jerez vs Moralo?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Jerez 1.07 · Moralo 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jerez vs Moralo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.