Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: AD Llerenense vs At. Pueblonuevo

Team pages: AD Llerenense · At. Pueblonuevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

AD Llerenense1.8

At. Pueblonuevo0.73

1X2

63% 23% 14%

AD Llerenense Draw At. Pueblonuevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Llerenense 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWDDD

At. Pueblonuevo 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLLLDL

Head-to-head

AD Llerenense 3–2–1 At. Pueblonuevo (6 last)

At. Pueblonuevo2-0AD Llerenense
AD Llerenense2-0At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo1-1AD Llerenense
AD Llerenense2-1At. Pueblonuevo
AD Llerenense3-3At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo0-2AD Llerenense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Llerenense 1558 · At. Pueblonuevo 1437

	AD Llerenense	Draw	At. Pueblonuevo
Our model	62%	25%	14%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Llerenense (rating 1558 vs 1437).
H2H favours AD Llerenense: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Llerenense	At. Pueblonuevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.3	1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	2.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:43 +1’	1.42	4.10	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Llerenense 3–2–1 At. Pueblonuevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	2-0	AD Llerenense
01/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	AD Llerenense	2-0	At. Pueblonuevo
09/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	1-1	AD Llerenense
27/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	AD Llerenense	2-1	At. Pueblonuevo
01/04/23 Spain Tercera Group 14	AD Llerenense	3-3 HT 1-2	At. Pueblonuevo
04/12/22 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	0-2	AD Llerenense

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
2	AD Llerenense	10	6	4	0	11	3	22
3	Moralo	10	6	3	1	16	10	21
4	Castuera	10	6	2	2	18	6	20
5	Villanovense	10	5	3	2	14	5	18
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
7	CD Zafra	10	3	4	3	14	10	13
8	CD Cabeza del Buey	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
9	SP Villafranca	10	4	1	5	17	17	13
10	CD Quintana	10	3	4	3	10	9	13
11	CF Jaraiz	10	3	3	4	14	12	12
12	Santa Amalia	10	2	6	2	13	11	12
13	CD Gevora	10	3	3	4	15	17	12
14	Jerez	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
15	Plasencia	10	1	5	4	10	17	8
16	UD Montijo	10	2	2	6	8	16	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	10	0	4	6	10	25	4
18	CD Guadiana	10	0	1	9	3	29	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Llerenense	At. Pueblonuevo
CD Quintana	1-1 D	1-4 L
Plasencia	0-0 D	3-4 L
Castuera	0-0 D	0-5 L
Santa Amalia	3-0 W	1-1 D
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	2-1 W	0-0 D
CD Gevora	2-1 W	1-3 L
CD Zafra	0-0 D	1-4 L
CF Jaraiz	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: AD Llerenense (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Llerenense

WWWDWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
21/10	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/10	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-1	11	8	W
27/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
19/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W

At. Pueblonuevo

DLDLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
01/11	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/10	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
18/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-4	–	–	L
11/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-5	–	–	L
03/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
13/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	2-2	2-2	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Llerenense vs At. Pueblonuevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Llerenense win (63%). Probabilities: AD Llerenense 63%, draw 23%, At. Pueblonuevo 14%.

How many goals are expected in AD Llerenense vs At. Pueblonuevo?

The model expects 2.53 goals (AD Llerenense 1.8 · At. Pueblonuevo 0.73), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Llerenense vs At. Pueblonuevo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.