Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: SP Villafranca vs CD Quintana

Team pages: SP Villafranca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

SP Villafranca1.64

CD Quintana0.97

1X2

52% 26% 21%

SP Villafranca Draw CD Quintana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Villafranca 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDLLW

CD Quintana 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLDWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Villafranca 1494 · CD Quintana 1513

	SP Villafranca	Draw	CD Quintana
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Villafranca	CD Quintana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 1	5.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +10’	1.70	3.50	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
2	AD Llerenense	10	6	4	0	11	3	22
3	Moralo	10	6	3	1	16	10	21
4	Castuera	10	6	2	2	18	6	20
5	Villanovense	10	5	3	2	14	5	18
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
7	CD Zafra	10	3	4	3	14	10	13
8	CD Cabeza del Buey	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
9	SP Villafranca	10	4	1	5	17	17	13
10	CD Quintana	10	3	4	3	10	9	13
11	CF Jaraiz	10	3	3	4	14	12	12
12	Santa Amalia	10	2	6	2	13	11	12
13	CD Gevora	10	3	3	4	15	17	12
14	Jerez	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
15	Plasencia	10	1	5	4	10	17	8
16	UD Montijo	10	2	2	6	8	16	8
17	At. Pueblonuevo	10	0	4	6	10	25	4
18	CD Guadiana	10	0	1	9	3	29	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Villafranca	CD Quintana
Plasencia	5-3 W	0-0 D
Castuera	0-1 L	1-1 D
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	1-2 L	2-1 W
CD Zafra	2-2 D	0-1 L
CD Gevora	2-1 W	0-0 D
Santa Amalia	3-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SP Villafranca (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Villafranca

LWLLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	5-3	–	–	W
01/11	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
21/10	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	2-2	4	10	D
18/10	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
09/10	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	3-1	1	7	W
27/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L

CD Quintana

LLDWDLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/10	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	4-1	–	–	W
21/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/09	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
20/09	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	0-3	3	13	L
06/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Villafranca vs CD Quintana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SP Villafranca win (52%). Probabilities: SP Villafranca 52%, draw 26%, CD Quintana 21%.

How many goals are expected in SP Villafranca vs CD Quintana?

The model expects 2.6 goals (SP Villafranca 1.64 · CD Quintana 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Villafranca vs CD Quintana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.