Football · England Premier League 2 · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Derby U21 vs Tottenham U21

Team pages: Derby U21 · Tottenham U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

Derby U211.69

Tottenham U212.11

1X2

31% 22% 47%

Derby U21 Draw Tottenham U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Derby U21 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLWD

Tottenham U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Derby U21 1–2 Tottenham U21 (3 last)

Derby U212-1Tottenham U21
Derby U210-2Tottenham U21
Derby U211-2Tottenham U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby U21 1509 · Tottenham U21 1505

	Derby U21	Draw	Tottenham U21
Our model	31%	22%	47%
Market	31%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tottenham U21: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby U21	Tottenham U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X4.20

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.21 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +40’	2.90	4.20	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +11’	2.58	3.98	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby U21 1–0–2 Tottenham U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/25 England Premier League 2	Derby U21	2-1 HT 1-1	Tottenham U21
25/08/23 England Premier League 2	Derby U21	0-2 HT 0-0	Tottenham U21
26/08/16 England Premier League 2	Derby U21	1-2	Tottenham U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Brentford U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	Fulham U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
4	Bournemouth U21	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Derby U21	2	1	1	0	7	5	4
6	Tottenham U21	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
7	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Liverpool U21	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Southampton U21	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
10	Norwich U21	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
11	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
12	Chelsea U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
12	Sunderland U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
14	Leeds U21	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
15	Reading U21	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
16	Aston Villa U21	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
17	Ipswich U21	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
18	Nottm Forest U21	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
19	Arsenal U21	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
20	Birmingham U21	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
21	West Brom U21	2	0	1	1	7	8	1
22	West Ham U21	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
23	Brighton U21	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
24	Everton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
24	Stoke U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
26	Burnley U21	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
27	Blackburn U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Leicester U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Middlesbrough U21	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby U21	Tottenham U21
Middlesbrough U21	1-0 W	1-3 L
West Ham U21	4-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Derby U21 (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby U21

DDLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	4-4	7	6	D
24/08	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
13/04	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
06/04	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
03/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/03	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	4-2	1	2	W
02/03	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-4	5	3	L
23/02	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/02	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-1	3	5	D

Tottenham U21

LLWWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	3-3	3	1	D
24/08	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
08/05	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
01/05	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	3-1	1	8	W
24/04	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
17/04	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
10/04	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
04/04	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
16/03	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
06/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby U21 vs Tottenham U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tottenham U21 win (47%). Probabilities: Derby U21 31%, draw 22%, Tottenham U21 47%.

How many goals are expected in Derby U21 vs Tottenham U21?

The model expects 3.8 goals (Derby U21 1.69 · Tottenham U21 2.11), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby U21 vs Tottenham U21?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.