Football · England Premier League 2 · 19/09, 13:30
Prediction: Leeds U21 vs Newcastle U21
Team pages: Leeds U21 · Newcastle U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.69Total
Leeds U211.94
Newcastle U211.75
1X2
Leeds U21
Draw
Newcastle U21
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Leeds U21
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Newcastle U21
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leeds U21
2–1–2
Newcastle U21
(5 last)
- Leeds U211-3Newcastle U21
- Newcastle U210-2Leeds U21
- Newcastle U212-2Leeds U21
- Leeds U214-2Newcastle U21
- Leeds U210-3Newcastle U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leeds U21 1454 · Newcastle U21 1463
| Leeds U21 | Draw | Newcastle U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Market | 43% | 22% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leeds U21 | Newcastle U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.6 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds U21 2–1–2 Newcastle U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/24 England Premier League 2 | Leeds U21 | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Newcastle U21 |
| 19/04/24 England Premier League 2 | Newcastle U21 | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Leeds U21 |
| 13/02/23 England Premier League 2 | Newcastle U21 | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Leeds U21 |
| 07/11/22 England Premier League 2 | Leeds U21 | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Newcastle U21 |
| 23/04/19 England U21 Premier League Cup | Leeds U21 | 0-3 | Newcastle U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Tottenham U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Norwich U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Southampton U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Man Utd U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Chelsea U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | Brentford U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunderland U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Reading U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Bournemouth U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Nottm Forest U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Stoke U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Brighton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Everton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Leeds U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | West Ham U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Liverpool U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Aston Villa U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 21 | Man City U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 24 | West Brom U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| 25 | Birmingham U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 26 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 27 | Burnley U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 | Blackburn U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 | Leicester U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 | Newcastle U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leeds U21 | Newcastle U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester U21 | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Man Utd U21 | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Tottenham U21 | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle U21 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leeds U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 30/08 | Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/04 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/03 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/03 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/02 | West Ham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/02 | Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Newcastle U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/04 | Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 10/04 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 13/03 | Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 09/03 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/02 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 20/02 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13/02 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leeds U21 vs Newcastle U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leeds U21 win (42%). Probabilities: Leeds U21 42%, draw 23%, Newcastle U21 35%.
How many goals are expected in Leeds U21 vs Newcastle U21?
The model expects 3.69 goals (Leeds U21 1.94 · Newcastle U21 1.75), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds U21 vs Newcastle U21?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.