Football · England Premier League 2 · 11/09, 20:00
Prediction: Norwich U21 vs Birmingham U21
Team pages: Norwich U21 · Birmingham U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.58Total
Norwich U212.26
Birmingham U211.33
1X2
Norwich U21
Draw
Birmingham U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Norwich U21
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Birmingham U21
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norwich U21 1526 · Birmingham U21 1446
| Norwich U21 | Draw | Birmingham U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 22% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 20% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norwich U21 (rating 1526 vs 1446).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich U21 | Birmingham U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 2.7 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man Utd U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Brentford U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Fulham U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bournemouth U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Derby U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Tottenham U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Southampton U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Norwich U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Man City U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Chelsea U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Sunderland U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Leeds U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Ipswich U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 18 | Nottm Forest U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Arsenal U21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Birmingham U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 21 | West Brom U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| 22 | West Ham U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 23 | Brighton U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 | Everton U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Stoke U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 26 | Burnley U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 | Blackburn U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 | Leicester U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 | Wolverhampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 | Newcastle U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norwich U21 | Birmingham U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough U21 | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Man City U21 | 0-3 L | 1-5 L |
| West Brom U21 | 4-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Tottenham U21 | 1-4 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 17 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/03 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/03 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/02 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/02 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/02 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Birmingham U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 10/04 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Everton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 20/03 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/03 | Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/03 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 02/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 22/02 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/02 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich U21 vs Birmingham U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich U21 win (58%). Probabilities: Norwich U21 58%, draw 21%, Birmingham U21 21%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich U21 vs Birmingham U21?
The model expects 3.58 goals (Norwich U21 2.26 · Birmingham U21 1.33), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich U21 vs Birmingham U21?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.