Football · England Premier League 2 · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Stoke U21 vs Wolverhampton U21

Team pages: Stoke U21 · Wolverhampton U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Stoke U211.64

Wolverhampton U211.62

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Stoke U21 Draw Wolverhampton U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Stoke U21 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Wolverhampton U21 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Stoke U21 3–1–0 Wolverhampton U21 (4 last)

Wolverhampton U212-2Stoke U21
Stoke U214-1Wolverhampton U21
Stoke U212-1Wolverhampton U21
Wolverhampton U212-3Stoke U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stoke U21 1405 · Wolverhampton U21 1462

	Stoke U21	Draw	Wolverhampton U21
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wolverhampton U21 (rating 1405 vs 1462).
H2H favours Stoke U21: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stoke U21	Wolverhampton U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	0.9 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.5	1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.73 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +30’	2.30	3.90	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +2’	2.68	3.77	2.00
14:43 +115’	2.73▲	3.87▲	2.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke U21 3–1–0 Wolverhampton U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/25 England Premier League 2	Wolverhampton U21	2-2 HT 0-1	Stoke U21
04/04/25 England Premier League 2	Stoke U21	4-1 HT 1-0	Wolverhampton U21
21/08/23 England Premier League 2	Stoke U21	2-1 HT 2-0	Wolverhampton U21
06/02/23 England U21 Premier League Cup	Wolverhampton U21	2-3 HT 2-2	Stoke U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Brentford U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	Fulham U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
4	Bournemouth U21	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Derby U21	2	1	1	0	7	5	4
6	Tottenham U21	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
7	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Liverpool U21	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Southampton U21	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
10	Norwich U21	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
11	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
12	Chelsea U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
12	Sunderland U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
14	Leeds U21	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
15	Reading U21	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
16	Aston Villa U21	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
17	Ipswich U21	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
18	Nottm Forest U21	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
19	Arsenal U21	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
20	Birmingham U21	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
21	West Brom U21	2	0	1	1	7	8	1
22	West Ham U21	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
23	Brighton U21	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
24	Everton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
24	Stoke U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
26	Burnley U21	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
27	Blackburn U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Leicester U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Middlesbrough U21	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stoke U21	Wolverhampton U21
Ipswich U21	1-2 L	3-4 L
Reading U21	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wolverhampton U21 (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stoke U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
21/08	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
17/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/03	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	3-2	1	2	W
13/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-6	3	5	L
09/03	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	3	7	L
27/02	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-4	4	4	L
13/02	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
07/02	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-3	2	3	L

Wolverhampton U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	0-4	1	1	L
13/04	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
10/04	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
20/03	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
14/03	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
08/03	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	0-5	0-5	2	1	L
02/03	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
20/02	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
16/02	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
07/02	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	3-2	3-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stoke U21 vs Wolverhampton U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stoke U21 win (38%). Probabilities: Stoke U21 38%, draw 24%, Wolverhampton U21 38%.

How many goals are expected in Stoke U21 vs Wolverhampton U21?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Stoke U21 1.64 · Wolverhampton U21 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Stoke U21 vs Wolverhampton U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.