Football · England Premier League 2 · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Sunderland U21 vs Ipswich U21

Team pages: Sunderland U21 · Ipswich U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

Sunderland U212.36

Ipswich U211.92

1X2

47% 21% 31%

Sunderland U21 Draw Ipswich U21

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Sunderland U21 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Ipswich U21 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sunderland U21 1–0 Ipswich U21 (1 last)

Sunderland U214-2Ipswich U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sunderland U21 1517 · Ipswich U21 1463

	Sunderland U21	Draw	Ipswich U21
Our model	48%	21%	31%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sunderland U21 (rating 1517 vs 1463).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sunderland U21	Ipswich U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.53
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.33 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +31’	1.90	4.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +69’	1.75	4.53	3.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sunderland U21 1–0–0 Ipswich U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/11/25 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	4-2 HT 1-1	Ipswich U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Brentford U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	Fulham U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
4	Bournemouth U21	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Derby U21	2	1	1	0	7	5	4
6	Tottenham U21	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
7	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Liverpool U21	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Southampton U21	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
10	Norwich U21	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
11	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
12	Chelsea U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
12	Sunderland U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
14	Leeds U21	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
15	Reading U21	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
16	Aston Villa U21	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
17	Ipswich U21	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
18	Nottm Forest U21	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
19	Arsenal U21	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
20	Birmingham U21	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
21	West Brom U21	2	0	1	1	7	8	1
22	West Ham U21	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
23	Brighton U21	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
24	Everton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
24	Stoke U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
26	Burnley U21	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
27	Blackburn U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Leicester U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Middlesbrough U21	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sunderland U21	Ipswich U21
Man Utd U21	2-3 L	0-5 L
Arsenal U21	3-1 W	1-0 W
Everton U21	2-1 W	4-8 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sunderland U21 (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sunderland U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-5	4	4	L
24/08	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	5	5	L
06/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
30/03	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
23/03	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	3-1	4	2	W
14/03	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	0-4	4	2	L
09/03	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-2	11	5	W
02/03	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
20/02	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	2-1	3	3	W

Ipswich U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
24/08	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-4	0-5	2	5	L
24/04	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/04	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	2-3	4-8	4	3	L
10/04	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
23/03	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
06/03	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
27/02	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/02	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
07/02	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	2-3	4-3	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sunderland U21 vs Ipswich U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sunderland U21 win (47%). Probabilities: Sunderland U21 47%, draw 21%, Ipswich U21 31%.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland U21 vs Ipswich U21?

The model expects 4.28 goals (Sunderland U21 2.36 · Ipswich U21 1.92), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland U21 vs Ipswich U21?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.