Football · England Premier League 2 · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21

Team pages: Arsenal U21 · Chelsea U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Arsenal U211.53

Chelsea U212.03

1X2

29% 22% 49%

Arsenal U21 Draw Chelsea U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal U21 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWLLDD

Chelsea U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Arsenal U21 2–4 Chelsea U21 (6 last)

Chelsea U212-1Arsenal U21
Chelsea U212-1Arsenal U21
Arsenal U212-3Chelsea U21
Chelsea U212-4Arsenal U21
Chelsea U211-0Arsenal U21
Arsenal U214-1Chelsea U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal U21 1452 · Chelsea U21 1548

	Arsenal U21	Draw	Chelsea U21
Our model	28%	23%	48%
Market	29%	22%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelsea U21 (rating 1452 vs 1548).
H2H favours Chelsea U21: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal U21	Chelsea U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	2.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.10

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.28
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.43 ★
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +7’	3.10	4.10	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:47 +50’	3.28	4.43	1.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal U21 2–0–4 Chelsea U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	2-1 HT 1-0	Arsenal U21
01/11/24 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	2-1 HT 1-1	Arsenal U21
11/05/24 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	2-3 HT 1-1	Chelsea U21
01/03/24 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	2-4 HT 1-1	Arsenal U21
27/02/23 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	1-0 HT 0-0	Arsenal U21
20/08/22 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	4-1 HT 2-1	Chelsea U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Brentford U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	Fulham U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
4	Bournemouth U21	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Derby U21	2	1	1	0	7	5	4
6	Tottenham U21	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
7	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Liverpool U21	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Southampton U21	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
10	Norwich U21	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
11	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
12	Chelsea U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
12	Sunderland U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
14	Leeds U21	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
15	Reading U21	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
16	Aston Villa U21	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
17	Ipswich U21	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
18	Nottm Forest U21	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
19	Arsenal U21	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
20	Birmingham U21	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
21	West Brom U21	2	0	1	1	7	8	1
22	West Ham U21	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
23	Brighton U21	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
24	Everton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
24	Stoke U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
26	Burnley U21	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
27	Blackburn U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Leicester U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Middlesbrough U21	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arsenal U21

WLDLLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
22/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	9	4	L
13/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
13/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	1-5	6	4	L
06/03	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
27/02	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/02	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	2	8	W

Chelsea U21

DWWWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	5-4	6	6	W
21/08	Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/05	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	12	8	L
25/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
10/04	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
20/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
14/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	10	2	W
09/03	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
02/03	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/02	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelsea U21 win (49%). Probabilities: Arsenal U21 29%, draw 22%, Chelsea U21 49%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Arsenal U21 1.53 · Chelsea U21 2.03), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.