Football · England Premier League 2 · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Fulham U21 vs Aston Villa U21

Team pages: Fulham U21 · Aston Villa U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Fulham U212.23

Aston Villa U211.53

1X2

53% 22% 26%

Fulham U21 Draw Aston Villa U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Fulham U21 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Aston Villa U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fulham U21 0–2–1 Aston Villa U21 (3 last)

Aston Villa U213-3Fulham U21
Aston Villa U211-1Fulham U21
Fulham U212-3Aston Villa U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fulham U21 1489 · Aston Villa U21 1492

	Fulham U21	Draw	Aston Villa U21
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	53%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fulham U21	Aston Villa U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.91 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +12’	1.70	4.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:35	1.87	3.83	3.10
14:48 +110’	1.91▲	3.92▲	3.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fulham U21 0–2–1 Aston Villa U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/01/25 England Premier League 2	Aston Villa U21	3-3 HT 3-2	Fulham U21
15/12/23 England Premier League 2	Aston Villa U21	1-1 HT 0-1	Fulham U21
26/08/17 England Premier League 2	Fulham U21	2-3	Aston Villa U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
2	Brentford U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
2	Fulham U21	2	2	0	0	8	3	6
4	Bournemouth U21	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Derby U21	2	1	1	0	7	5	4
6	Tottenham U21	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
7	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Liverpool U21	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Southampton U21	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
10	Norwich U21	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
11	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
12	Chelsea U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
12	Sunderland U21	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
14	Leeds U21	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
15	Reading U21	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
16	Aston Villa U21	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
17	Ipswich U21	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
18	Nottm Forest U21	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
19	Arsenal U21	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
20	Birmingham U21	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
21	West Brom U21	2	0	1	1	7	8	1
22	West Ham U21	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
23	Brighton U21	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
24	Everton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
24	Stoke U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
26	Burnley U21	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
27	Blackburn U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Leicester U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
27	Middlesbrough U21	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fulham U21	Aston Villa U21
Stoke U21	2-3 L	1-0 W
Brighton U21	4-3 W	2-1 W
Crystal Palace U21	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fulham U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	5	6	W
21/08	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	4-3	10	3	W
24/04	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/04	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
23/03	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-3	4	2	L
13/03	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
06/03	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	4-3	4	0	W
27/02	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-1	1	1	W
20/02	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
13/02	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	3	3	L

Aston Villa U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
21/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
01/05	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
24/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-3	3	7	D
17/04	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
03/04	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
20/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
13/03	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fulham U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fulham U21 win (53%). Probabilities: Fulham U21 53%, draw 22%, Aston Villa U21 26%.

How many goals are expected in Fulham U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Fulham U21 2.23 · Aston Villa U21 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fulham U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.