Football · England Premier League 2 · 18/09, 20:00

Prediction: Aston Villa U21 vs Middlesbrough U21

Team pages: Aston Villa U21 · Middlesbrough U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Aston Villa U211.95

Middlesbrough U211.72

1X2

43% 23% 34%

Aston Villa U21 Draw Middlesbrough U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Aston Villa U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDLWLD

Middlesbrough U21 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Aston Villa U21 2–1–2 Middlesbrough U21 (5 last)

Aston Villa U210-2Middlesbrough U21
Middlesbrough U214-2Aston Villa U21
Aston Villa U214-0Middlesbrough U21
Middlesbrough U212-3Aston Villa U21
Aston Villa U213-3Middlesbrough U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aston Villa U21 1508 · Middlesbrough U21 1532

	Aston Villa U21	Draw	Middlesbrough U21
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	43%	22%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aston Villa U21	Middlesbrough U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +15’	2.05	4.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa U21 2–1–2 Middlesbrough U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 England Premier League 2	Aston Villa U21	0-2 HT 0-2	Middlesbrough U21
25/10/24 England Premier League 2	Middlesbrough U21	4-2 HT 3-0	Aston Villa U21
16/02/24 England Premier League 2	Aston Villa U21	4-0 HT 0-0	Middlesbrough U21
06/03/23 England Premier League 2	Middlesbrough U21	2-3 HT 2-2	Aston Villa U21
05/08/22 England Premier League 2	Aston Villa U21	3-3 HT 3-0	Middlesbrough U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fulham U21	3	2	1	0	11	6	7
2	Tottenham U21	3	2	1	0	9	5	7
3	Norwich U21	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
3	Southampton U21	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
5	Man Utd U21	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
6	Chelsea U21	3	2	0	1	10	7	6
7	Brentford U21	3	2	0	1	8	5	6
8	Sunderland U21	3	2	0	1	10	8	6
9	Reading U21	3	2	0	1	7	6	6
10	Bournemouth U21	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
11	Nottm Forest U21	3	2	0	1	4	6	6
12	Stoke U21	3	1	1	1	6	3	4
13	Brighton U21	3	1	1	1	6	4	4
14	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
15	Everton U21	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
16	Leeds U21	3	1	1	1	9	9	4
17	Derby U21	3	1	1	1	8	8	4
18	West Ham U21	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
19	Liverpool U21	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
20	Aston Villa U21	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
21	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
22	Ipswich U21	3	1	0	2	6	10	3
23	Arsenal U21	3	0	2	1	4	7	2
24	West Brom U21	2	0	1	1	7	8	1
25	Birmingham U21	2	0	1	1	5	7	1
26	Middlesbrough U21	3	0	1	2	5	8	1
27	Burnley U21	3	0	0	3	4	8	0
28	Blackburn U21	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
29	Leicester U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0
29	Newcastle U21	2	0	0	2	1	7	0
31	Wolverhampton U21	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aston Villa U21	Middlesbrough U21
Southampton U21	3-3 D	1-2 L
Stoke U21	1-0 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aston Villa U21

WDWLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	3-3	3	5	D
28/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
21/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
01/05	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
24/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-3	3	7	D
17/04	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
03/04	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
20/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-2	3	4	W

Middlesbrough U21

LLWWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	4-4	7	0	D
31/08	Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
23/08	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
25/04	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
10/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/03	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
13/03	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	6-1	6	5	W
06/03	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
02/03	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-4	9	7	L
20/02	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-2	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aston Villa U21 vs Middlesbrough U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aston Villa U21 win (43%). Probabilities: Aston Villa U21 43%, draw 23%, Middlesbrough U21 34%.

How many goals are expected in Aston Villa U21 vs Middlesbrough U21?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Aston Villa U21 1.95 · Middlesbrough U21 1.72), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa U21 vs Middlesbrough U21?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.