Football · England Premier League 2 · 18/09, 20:00
Prediction: Burnley U21 vs Derby U21
Team pages: Burnley U21 · Derby U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
Burnley U211.82
Derby U211.67
1X2
Burnley U21
Draw
Derby U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Burnley U21
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Derby U21
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Burnley U21
0–1–0
Derby U21
(1 last)
- Burnley U211-1Derby U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burnley U21 1462 · Derby U21 1494
| Burnley U21 | Draw | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | 42% | 22% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burnley U21 | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.2 | 1.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Burnley U21 0–1–0 Derby U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/26 England Premier League 2 | Burnley U21 | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Derby U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Tottenham U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Norwich U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Southampton U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Man Utd U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Chelsea U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | Brentford U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunderland U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Reading U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Bournemouth U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Nottm Forest U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Stoke U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Brighton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Everton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Leeds U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | West Ham U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Liverpool U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Aston Villa U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 21 | Man City U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 24 | West Brom U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| 25 | Birmingham U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 26 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 27 | Burnley U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 | Blackburn U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 | Leicester U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 | Newcastle U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burnley U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 28/08 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 23/03 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 16/03 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/03 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 27/02 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/02 | Derby U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 16/02 | Everton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
Derby U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/04 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/03 | West Ham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/02 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burnley U21 vs Derby U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Burnley U21 win (41%). Probabilities: Burnley U21 41%, draw 23%, Derby U21 35%.
How many goals are expected in Burnley U21 vs Derby U21?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Burnley U21 1.82 · Derby U21 1.67), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Burnley U21 vs Derby U21?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.