Football · England Premier League 2 · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: Reading U21 vs Newcastle U21

Team pages: Reading U21 · Newcastle U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Reading U211.79

Newcastle U211.41

1X2

46% 24% 30%

Reading U21 Draw Newcastle U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Reading U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWDLW

Newcastle U21 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Reading U21 1–1–1 Newcastle U21 (3 last)

Reading U211-1Newcastle U21
Newcastle U217-1Reading U21
Reading U211-0Newcastle U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Reading U21 1477 · Newcastle U21 1518

	Reading U21	Draw	Newcastle U21
Our model	45%	25%	29%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newcastle U21 (rating 1477 vs 1518).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reading U21	Newcastle U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.7	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.23 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +6’	1.91	4.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +11’	2.23	3.87	2.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Reading U21 1–1–1 Newcastle U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/25 England Premier League 2	Reading U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Newcastle U21
07/04/25 England Premier League 2	Newcastle U21	7-1 HT 2-0	Reading U21
25/08/23 England Premier League 2	Reading U21	1-0 HT 1-0	Newcastle U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	6	5	1	0	17	8	16
2	Southampton U21	5	4	1	0	12	4	13
3	Chelsea U21	6	4	1	1	17	11	13
4	Norwich U21	6	4	1	1	14	10	13
5	Nottm Forest U21	6	4	0	2	11	11	12
6	Liverpool U21	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
7	Sunderland U21	6	3	1	2	17	14	10
8	Fulham U21	6	3	1	2	16	14	10
9	Bournemouth U21	6	3	1	2	14	13	10
10	Reading U21	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
11	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
12	Brentford U21	6	3	0	3	15	13	9
13	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
14	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
15	West Ham U21	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
16	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
17	Crystal Palace U21	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
18	Derby U21	6	2	1	3	16	16	7
19	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
20	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
21	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
22	Blackburn U21	4	2	0	2	8	9	6
23	Stoke U21	6	1	1	4	11	11	4
24	Leicester U21	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
25	Arsenal U21	6	0	4	2	7	13	4
26	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
27	Newcastle U21	4	1	0	3	4	11	3
28	Wolverhampton U21	4	1	0	3	2	11	3
29	Middlesbrough U21	6	0	2	4	9	14	2
30	Birmingham U21	5	0	2	3	5	16	2
31	West Brom U21	5	0	1	4	11	17	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reading U21	Newcastle U21
Nottm Forest U21	2-1 W	0-3 L
Blackburn U21	3-2 W	2-0 W
Sunderland U21	2-2 D	3-2 W
Man Utd U21	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newcastle U21 (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reading U21

WLDWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
17/10	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/09	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	8	9	D
14/09	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
28/08	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
24/08	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
13/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
30/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
20/03	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
13/03	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

Newcastle U21

DDWLWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	3-2	4	9	W
19/09	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
31/08	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-4	8	6	L
24/08	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
13/04	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	13	3	D
10/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
20/03	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
13/03	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
09/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
27/02	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-2	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reading U21 vs Newcastle U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reading U21 win (46%). Probabilities: Reading U21 46%, draw 24%, Newcastle U21 30%.

How many goals are expected in Reading U21 vs Newcastle U21?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Reading U21 1.79 · Newcastle U21 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Reading U21 vs Newcastle U21?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.