Football · England Premier League 2 · 09/11, 20:00
Prediction: Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21
Team pages: Middlesbrough U21 · Derby U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.98Total
Middlesbrough U212.2
Derby U211.77
1X2
Middlesbrough U21
Draw
Derby U21
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Middlesbrough U21
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Derby U21
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough U21
3–1
Derby U21
(4 last)
- Derby U211-0Middlesbrough U21
- Middlesbrough U211-0Derby U21
- Derby U211-5Middlesbrough U21
- Middlesbrough U213-1Derby U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Middlesbrough U21 1485 · Derby U21 1484
| Middlesbrough U21 | Draw | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 49% | 19% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Middlesbrough U21: 3-0-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Middlesbrough U21 | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 2.2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough U21 3–0–1 Derby U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 England Premier League 2 | Derby U21 | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough U21 |
| 05/11/23 England Premier League 2 | Middlesbrough U21 | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Derby U21 |
| 24/03/23 England Premier League 2 | Derby U21 | 1-5 HT 1-1 | Middlesbrough U21 |
| 12/08/22 England Premier League 2 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Derby U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton U21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Tottenham U21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Fulham U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 13 |
| 5 | Norwich U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| 6 | Nottm Forest U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 7 | Liverpool U21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Reading U21 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Man Utd U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Leeds U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 10 |
| 11 | Sunderland U21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 10 |
| 12 | Bournemouth U21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 10 |
| 13 | Everton U21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Brentford U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 9 |
| 15 | West Ham U21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 16 | Blackburn U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 18 | Brighton U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 8 |
| 19 | Aston Villa U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 20 | Derby U21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 7 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 7 |
| 22 | Man City U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| 23 | Ipswich U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| 24 | Wolverhampton U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 6 |
| 25 | Leicester U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 5 |
| 26 | Stoke U21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 4 |
| 27 | Burnley U21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 4 |
| 28 | Newcastle U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
| 29 | Birmingham U21 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 3 |
| 30 | Middlesbrough U21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 2 |
| 31 | West Brom U21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Middlesbrough U21 | Derby U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham U21 | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Norwich U21 | 0-1 L | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough U21 (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Middlesbrough U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/10 | Everton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 18/09 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Leeds U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 31/08 | Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/04 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/03 | Derby U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 13/03 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Derby U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/10 | Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/04 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough U21 win (48%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough U21 48%, draw 20%, Derby U21 32%.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21?
The model expects 3.98 goals (Middlesbrough U21 2.2 · Derby U21 1.77), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.