Football · England Premier League 2 · 08/11, 15:00

Prediction: Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21

Team pages: Arsenal U21 · Aston Villa U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Arsenal U211.9

Aston Villa U211.56

1X2

46% 23% 32%

Arsenal U21 Draw Aston Villa U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal U21 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDLDDL

Aston Villa U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWLDDW

Head-to-head

Arsenal U21 1–1 Aston Villa U21 (2 last)

Arsenal U214-1Aston Villa U21
Arsenal U213-5Aston Villa U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal U21 1472 · Aston Villa U21 1474

	Arsenal U21	Draw	Aston Villa U21
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	46%	22%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal U21	Aston Villa U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.5	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.32
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.18 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +19’	1.95	4.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +4’	1.85	4.32	3.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal U21 1–0–1 Aston Villa U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/24 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	4-1 HT 1-0	Aston Villa U21
15/04/24 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	3-5 HT 1-3	Aston Villa U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	6	5	1	0	17	8	16
2	Southampton U21	5	4	1	0	12	4	13
3	Chelsea U21	6	4	1	1	17	11	13
4	Fulham U21	7	4	1	2	20	15	13
5	Norwich U21	6	4	1	1	14	10	13
6	Nottm Forest U21	7	4	1	2	13	13	13
7	Liverpool U21	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
8	Reading U21	7	3	2	2	10	9	11
9	Sunderland U21	7	3	1	3	18	16	10
10	Bournemouth U21	6	3	1	2	14	13	10
11	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
12	Brentford U21	7	3	0	4	15	15	9
13	West Ham U21	7	2	3	2	12	12	9
14	Blackburn U21	5	3	0	2	10	10	9
15	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
16	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
17	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
18	Crystal Palace U21	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
19	Derby U21	6	2	1	3	16	16	7
20	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
21	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
22	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
23	Wolverhampton U21	5	2	0	3	4	11	6
24	Leicester U21	6	1	2	3	7	12	5
25	Stoke U21	7	1	1	5	12	15	4
26	Arsenal U21	6	0	4	2	7	13	4
27	Newcastle U21	5	1	1	3	5	12	4
28	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
29	Birmingham U21	6	0	3	3	7	18	3
30	Middlesbrough U21	6	0	2	4	9	14	2
31	West Brom U21	5	0	1	4	11	17	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arsenal U21	Aston Villa U21
Brighton U21	2-2 D	2-1 W
Crystal Palace U21	1-1 D	0-2 L
Man City U21	1-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aston Villa U21 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arsenal U21

LWLLDDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-4	6	3	L
10/10	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
18/09	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
12/09	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
31/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
22/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	9	4	L
13/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-3	3	2	L

Aston Villa U21

WLWDLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/09	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
11/09	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	3-3	3	5	D
28/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
21/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
01/05	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
24/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-3	3	7	D
17/04	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal U21 win (46%). Probabilities: Arsenal U21 46%, draw 23%, Aston Villa U21 32%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Arsenal U21 1.9 · Aston Villa U21 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.