Football · England Premier League 2 · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: Stoke U21 vs Fulham U21

Team pages: Stoke U21 · Fulham U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

Stoke U211.71

Fulham U212.2

1X2

30% 22% 49%

Stoke U21 Draw Fulham U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Stoke U21 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDWLLL

Fulham U21 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDLWL

Head-to-head

Stoke U21 1–3 Fulham U21 (4 last)

Stoke U213-2Fulham U21
Stoke U210-1Fulham U21
Stoke U211-6Fulham U21
Fulham U212-0Stoke U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stoke U21 1415 · Fulham U21 1462

	Stoke U21	Draw	Fulham U21
Our model	30%	22%	49%
Market	30%	21%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fulham U21 (rating 1415 vs 1462).
H2H favours Fulham U21: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stoke U21	Fulham U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.20

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.42 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.47
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +5’	3.00	4.20	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +16’	3.42	4.47	1.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke U21 1–0–3 Fulham U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 England Premier League 2	Stoke U21	3-2 HT 0-2	Fulham U21
25/10/24 England Premier League 2	Stoke U21	0-1 HT 0-0	Fulham U21
11/03/23 England U21 Premier League Cup	Stoke U21	1-6 HT 0-2	Fulham U21
07/01/17 England Premier League 2	Fulham U21	2-0	Stoke U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	6	5	1	0	17	8	16
2	Southampton U21	5	4	1	0	12	4	13
3	Chelsea U21	6	4	1	1	17	11	13
4	Norwich U21	6	4	1	1	14	10	13
5	Nottm Forest U21	6	4	0	2	11	11	12
6	Liverpool U21	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
7	Sunderland U21	6	3	1	2	17	14	10
8	Fulham U21	6	3	1	2	16	14	10
9	Bournemouth U21	6	3	1	2	14	13	10
10	Reading U21	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
11	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
12	Brentford U21	6	3	0	3	15	13	9
13	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
14	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
15	West Ham U21	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
16	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
17	Crystal Palace U21	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
18	Derby U21	6	2	1	3	16	16	7
19	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
20	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
21	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
22	Blackburn U21	4	2	0	2	8	9	6
23	Stoke U21	6	1	1	4	11	11	4
24	Leicester U21	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
25	Arsenal U21	6	0	4	2	7	13	4
26	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
27	Newcastle U21	4	1	0	3	4	11	3
28	Wolverhampton U21	4	1	0	3	2	11	3
29	Middlesbrough U21	6	0	2	4	9	14	2
30	Birmingham U21	5	0	2	3	5	16	2
31	West Brom U21	5	0	1	4	11	17	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stoke U21	Fulham U21
Chelsea U21	1-2 L	1-3 L
Brentford U21	2-3 L	2-1 W
Aston Villa U21	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fulham U21 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stoke U21

LWWLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	3-4	1	4	L
16/10	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
21/09	Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
11/09	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
28/08	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
21/08	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
17/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/03	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	3-2	1	2	W
13/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-6	3	5	L

Fulham U21

LLWDWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-4	5	5	L
18/10	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
19/09	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
11/09	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-3	4	5	D
31/08	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	5	6	W
21/08	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	4-3	10	3	W
24/04	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/04	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
23/03	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-3	4	2	L
13/03	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stoke U21 vs Fulham U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fulham U21 win (49%). Probabilities: Stoke U21 30%, draw 22%, Fulham U21 49%.

How many goals are expected in Stoke U21 vs Fulham U21?

The model expects 3.91 goals (Stoke U21 1.71 · Fulham U21 2.2), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Stoke U21 vs Fulham U21?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.