Football · Italy Serie D · 04/10, 15:00
Prediction: Recanatese vs Maceratese
Team pages: Recanatese · Maceratese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Recanatese1.4
Maceratese1.13
1X2
Recanatese
Draw
Maceratese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Recanatese
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Maceratese
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Recanatese
0–3–3
Maceratese
(6 last)
- Maceratese1-1Recanatese
- Maceratese2-1Recanatese
- Recanatese2-2Maceratese
- Recanatese1-4Maceratese
- Maceratese1-0Recanatese
- Recanatese1-1Maceratese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Recanatese 1524 · Maceratese 1474
| Recanatese | Draw | Maceratese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Recanatese (rating 1524 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Maceratese: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Recanatese | Maceratese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/67/0% | 17/33/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.3 | 1 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.7 | 2.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Recanatese 0–3–3 Maceratese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 Italy Serie D Cup | Maceratese | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Recanatese |
| 12/04/26 Italy Serie D | Maceratese | 2-1 | Recanatese |
| 30/11/25 Italy Serie D | Recanatese | 2-2 | Maceratese |
| 23/08/25 Italy Serie D Cup | Recanatese | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Maceratese |
| 19/04/15 Italy Serie D | Maceratese | 1-0 | Recanatese |
| 07/12/14 Italy Serie D | Recanatese | 1-1 | Maceratese |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Igea Virtus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | ASD Licata | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Nissa FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Milazzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Siracusa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Modica | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | ASD CastrumFavara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Città di Gela | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | ASD Ragusa | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Vigor Lamezia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
| 17 | Enna Calcio | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 1 |
| 18 | Trapani | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Recanatese | Maceratese |
|---|---|---|
| Santegidiese | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Polisportiva Pietralunghese | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Teramo | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Recanatese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Lanciano Italy Serie D |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 16/09 | Foligno Italy Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Santegidiese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/09 | Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Teramo Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Maceratese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/04 | Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Maceratese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Santegidiese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 13/09 | ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Teramo Italy Serie D |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Chieti Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 19/04 | Unipomezia Italy Serie D |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | Recanatese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | San Marino Calcio Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Recanatese vs Maceratese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Recanatese win (42%). Probabilities: Recanatese 42%, draw 29%, Maceratese 29%.
How many goals are expected in Recanatese vs Maceratese?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Recanatese 1.4 · Maceratese 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Recanatese vs Maceratese?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.