Football · Italy Serie D · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: U.S. Ancona vs L'Aquila

Team pages: U.S. Ancona · L'Aquila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

U.S. Ancona1.12

L'Aquila0.84

1X2

42% 31% 27%

U.S. Ancona Draw L'Aquila

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

U.S. Ancona 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDDWLW

L'Aquila 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDDWWD

Head-to-head

U.S. Ancona 2–3–1 L'Aquila (6 last)

L'Aquila0-0U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona2-0L'Aquila
L'Aquila0-0U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona0-0L'Aquila
L'Aquila2-1U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona2-1L'Aquila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · U.S. Ancona 1560 · L'Aquila 1511

	U.S. Ancona	Draw	L'Aquila
Our model	41%	33%	26%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours U.S. Ancona (rating 1560 vs 1511).
H2H favours U.S. Ancona: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	U.S. Ancona	L'Aquila
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/29/14%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.6	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:10 +15’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · U.S. Ancona 2–3–1 L'Aquila

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	0-0	U.S. Ancona
14/12/25 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	2-0	L'Aquila
23/03/25 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	0-0	U.S. Ancona
10/11/24 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	0-0	L'Aquila
08/04/18 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	2-1	U.S. Ancona
19/11/17 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	2-1	L'Aquila

Standings · Italy Serie D

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	Nissa FC	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	Igea Virtus	3	2	1	0	10	7	7
4	Sambiase	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Milazzo	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	3	1	2	0	7	2	5
7	Vibonese	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
8	ASD CastrumFavara	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	Calcio Avola 1949	3	1	0	2	3	8	3
11	ASD Ragusa	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
11	Vigor Lamezia	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
13	Città di Gela	3	1	0	2	4	5	2
14	ASD Licata	3	0	2	1	2	7	2
15	Modica	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	Siracusa	3	2	1	0	7	4	0
17	Enna Calcio	3	0	0	3	0	9	0
18	Trapani	3	0	0	3	0	7	-5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	U.S. Ancona	L'Aquila
Notaresco Calcio 1924	2-1 W	0-2 L
Sammaurese	3-0 W	0-0 D
FC Forsempronese	2-1 W	4-0 W
Teramo	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: U.S. Ancona (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

U.S. Ancona

DWLWWDDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
12/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
06/09	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
03/05	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Sammaurese Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	4	6	W
12/04	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/04	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-2	0-2	8	8	L
29/03	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	2	10	W
22/03	ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	11	7	D

L'Aquila

LLLDLDDWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
06/09	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/04	Sammaurese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
02/04	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
29/03	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/03	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in U.S. Ancona vs L'Aquila?

According to our model, the most likely result is a U.S. Ancona win (42%). Probabilities: U.S. Ancona 42%, draw 31%, L'Aquila 27%.

How many goals are expected in U.S. Ancona vs L'Aquila?

The model expects 1.96 goals (U.S. Ancona 1.12 · L'Aquila 0.84), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in U.S. Ancona vs L'Aquila?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.