Football · Italy Serie D · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: USD Casatese vs Pistoiese

Team pages: USD Casatese · Pistoiese

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
USD Casatese0.86
Pistoiese1.59
1X2
20% 26% 54%
USD Casatese Draw Pistoiese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
USD Casatese 7-2-1 (W-D-L)
WWWWDWDLWW
Pistoiese 7-2-1 (W-D-L)
WDLDWWWWWW
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USD Casatese 1571 · Pistoiese 1592
USD CasateseDrawPistoiese
Our model19%27%53%
Market20%26%54%
Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

  • High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

USD CasatesePistoiese
Goals for / against (FT)2.1 / 0.82.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)1 / 0.31 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)33/67/0%33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)2.3 / 4.53.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.7 / 0.21.3 / 0.3

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Reggina 5500 15015
2 Sambiase 5410 9313
3 Igea Virtus 5311 131010
4 Vibonese 5311 13510
5 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 5230 829
6 Calcio Avola 1949 5302 8109
7 ASD Licata 5221 678
8 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 5212 987
9 Nissa FC 5212 887
10 Milazzo 5203 486
11 Siracusa 5320 844
12 Modica 5113 354
13 ASD CastrumFavara 5113 554
14 Città di Gela 5113 463
15 ASD Ragusa 5023 482
16 Vigor Lamezia 5023 5132
17 Enna Calcio 5014 0121
18 Trapani 5104 210-2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentUSD CasatesePistoiese
ASD Varesina 4-2 W 1-0 W
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo 1-2 L 3-0 W
Solbiatese Calcio 1911 0-0 D 2-0 W
Arconatese 2-1 W 5-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 1 L 4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pistoiese (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USD Casatese

WWWWDWDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/09 ASD Varesina
Italy Serie D
– 4-2 –– W
20/09 Correggese
Italy Serie D
0-0 3-1 54 W
16/09 A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-2 37 L
12/09 Solbiatese Calcio 1911
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 52 D
06/09 Arconatese
Italy Serie D
– 2-1 –– W
17/05 AC Chievo Verona
Italy Serie D
1-1 2-2 36 D
03/05 AC Leon Monza Brianza
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
26/04 Scanzorosciate
Italy Serie D
– 3-0 –– W
19/04 Pavia
Italy Serie D
1-0 1-0 52 W
11/04 AVC Vogherese 1919
Italy Serie D
3-0 4-0 62 W

Pistoiese

WDLDWWWWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/09 A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Italy Serie D
2-0 3-0 22 W
20/09 ASD Varesina
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
16/09 Arconatese
Italy Serie D
2-0 5-0 72 W
13/09 A.C. Crema 1908
Italy Serie D
– 3-1 –– W
06/09 Solbiatese Calcio 1911
Italy Serie D
0-0 2-0 90 W
03/05 Cittadella Vis Modena
Italy Serie D
– 5-0 –– W
26/04 Desenzano
Italy Serie D
– 1-1 –– D
19/04 Tropical Coriano
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-1 103 L
12/04 Pro Sesto
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 53 D
03/04 A.C. Crema 1908
Italy Serie D
2-2 4-2 30 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pistoiese win (54%). Probabilities: USD Casatese 20%, draw 26%, Pistoiese 54%.

How many goals are expected in USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?

The model expects 2.45 goals (USD Casatese 0.86 · Pistoiese 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.