Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: Union Molinense CF vs At. Pulpileno

Team pages: Union Molinense CF · At. Pulpileno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Union Molinense CF1.45

At. Pulpileno1.02

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Union Molinense CF Draw At. Pulpileno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Molinense CF 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWDWDL

At. Pulpileno 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWLLLW

Head-to-head

Union Molinense CF 2–2–2 At. Pulpileno (6 last)

Union Molinense CF1-1At. Pulpileno
At. Pulpileno0-1Union Molinense CF
At. Pulpileno2-1Union Molinense CF
Union Molinense CF3-1At. Pulpileno
Union Molinense CF2-4At. Pulpileno
At. Pulpileno1-1Union Molinense CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Molinense CF 1523 · At. Pulpileno 1466

	Union Molinense CF	Draw	At. Pulpileno
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Molinense CF (rating 1523 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Molinense CF	At. Pulpileno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.96
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.74 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +11’	1.91	3.30	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:11 +27’	1.96	3.10	3.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Molinense CF 2–2–2 At. Pulpileno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	1-1 HT 0-0	At. Pulpileno
21/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	0-1 HT 0-1	Union Molinense CF
30/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	2-1 HT 1-1	Union Molinense CF
17/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	3-1	At. Pulpileno
01/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	2-4 HT 0-1	At. Pulpileno
06/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	1-1 HT 1-0	Union Molinense CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Molinense CF	At. Pulpileno
Atletico Santa Cruz	0-2 L	2-3 L
Bala Azul	1-1 D	2-3 L
Alcantarilla FC	3-0 W	0-0 D
Mazarron	3-2 W	0-1 L
FC Cartagena B	4-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Molinense CF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Molinense CF

WDWDLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
25/10	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
10/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-0	–	–	W
04/10	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
27/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	3-2	1	8	W
20/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
13/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-2	10	9	D
06/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
10/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

At. Pulpileno

DLWDDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-2	3-2	1	8	W
24/10	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
10/10	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-3	2	11	L
04/10	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
27/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
20/09	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-0	4	3	D
05/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
10/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
03/05	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Molinense CF vs At. Pulpileno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Molinense CF win (46%). Probabilities: Union Molinense CF 46%, draw 28%, At. Pulpileno 26%.

How many goals are expected in Union Molinense CF vs At. Pulpileno?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Union Molinense CF 1.45 · At. Pulpileno 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Molinense CF vs At. Pulpileno?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.