Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 14/11, 16:30

Prediction: Atletico Santa Cruz vs UCAM Murcia CF B

Team pages: Atletico Santa Cruz · UCAM Murcia CF B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Atletico Santa Cruz1.55

UCAM Murcia CF B1.13

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Atletico Santa Cruz Draw UCAM Murcia CF B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Santa Cruz 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWWWW

UCAM Murcia CF B 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLWWWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Santa Cruz 0–2 UCAM Murcia CF B (2 last)

UCAM Murcia CF B4-0Atletico Santa Cruz
Atletico Santa Cruz0-1UCAM Murcia CF B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Santa Cruz 1535 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1549

	Atletico Santa Cruz	Draw	UCAM Murcia CF B
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UCAM Murcia CF B: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Santa Cruz	UCAM Murcia CF B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +2’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Santa Cruz 0–0–2 UCAM Murcia CF B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	4-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Santa Cruz
15/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Atletico Santa Cruz	0-1 HT 0-0	UCAM Murcia CF B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	9	8	1	0	22	7	25
2	Atletico Santa Cruz	9	5	3	1	16	10	18
3	Aguilas B	9	4	5	0	14	6	17
4	San Javier CF	9	4	4	1	14	12	16
5	UCAM Murcia CF B	9	4	3	2	18	10	15
6	Union Molinense CF	9	4	3	2	16	11	15
7	UD Los Garres	9	4	2	3	11	8	14
8	Bala Azul	9	3	4	2	12	10	13
9	Deportivo Maritimo	9	4	1	4	12	15	13
10	Alcantarilla FC	9	3	3	3	13	10	12
11	At. Pulpileno	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
11	Olimpico Totana	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
13	Cotillas CD	9	3	1	5	10	13	10
14	FC Cartagena B	9	2	3	4	14	17	9
15	SFC Minerva	9	2	2	5	4	11	8
16	CD Algar	9	2	0	7	6	23	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
18	Mazarron	9	1	1	7	12	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Santa Cruz	UCAM Murcia CF B
Cotillas CD	1-0 W	1-0 W
Alcantarilla FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Aguilas B	1-1 D	2-2 D
Mazarron	2-2 D	5-1 W
Olimpico Totana	2-1 W	0-1 L
San Javier CF	2-3 L	1-1 D
FC Cartagena B	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia CF B (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Santa Cruz

WLWDDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
31/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
24/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
10/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
06/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-3	6	11	L
10/05	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

UCAM Murcia CF B

DLWDDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
31/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
24/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/10	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	5-1	4	3	W
04/10	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
20/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	0	7	D
13/09	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
05/09	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
10/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Santa Cruz vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Santa Cruz win (46%). Probabilities: Atletico Santa Cruz 46%, draw 28%, UCAM Murcia CF B 26%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Santa Cruz vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Atletico Santa Cruz 1.55 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1.13), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Santa Cruz vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.