Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 14/11, 20:00

Prediction: Aguilas B vs Santomera

Team pages: Aguilas B · Santomera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Aguilas B1.16

Santomera1.5

1X2

28% 28% 44%

Aguilas B Draw Santomera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas B 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDDDDDWWWW

Santomera 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Aguilas B 2–1–1 Santomera (4 last)

Aguilas B2-0Santomera
Santomera2-2Aguilas B
Santomera2-0Aguilas B
Aguilas B1-0Santomera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas B 1567 · Santomera 1573

	Aguilas B	Draw	Santomera
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	28%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aguilas B: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas B	Santomera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.9	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.7	5.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +42’	3.20	3.20	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas B 2–1–1 Santomera

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-0	Santomera
16/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	2-2 HT 2-0	Aguilas B
19/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	2-0 HT 0-0	Aguilas B
20/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	1-0 HT 0-0	Santomera

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	9	8	1	0	22	7	25
2	Atletico Santa Cruz	9	5	3	1	16	10	18
3	Aguilas B	9	4	5	0	14	6	17
4	San Javier CF	9	4	4	1	14	12	16
5	UCAM Murcia CF B	9	4	3	2	18	10	15
6	Union Molinense CF	9	4	3	2	16	11	15
7	UD Los Garres	9	4	2	3	11	8	14
8	Bala Azul	9	3	4	2	12	10	13
9	Deportivo Maritimo	9	4	1	4	12	15	13
10	Alcantarilla FC	9	3	3	3	13	10	12
11	At. Pulpileno	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
11	Olimpico Totana	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
13	Cotillas CD	9	3	1	5	10	13	10
14	FC Cartagena B	9	2	3	4	14	17	9
15	SFC Minerva	9	2	2	5	4	11	8
16	CD Algar	9	2	0	7	6	23	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
18	Mazarron	9	1	1	7	12	18	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas B	Santomera
Bullas Deportivo	3-0 W	2-1 W
CD Algar	2-0 W	2-0 W
UD Los Garres	2-1 W	2-2 D
UCAM Murcia CF B	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas B (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas B

DDDDDDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-0	–	–	W
01/11	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/09	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
20/09	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
13/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
06/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
10/05	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	5	D

Santomera

LWDWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
01/11	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-1	3	7	W
24/10	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	5	7	W
10/10	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
04/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
27/09	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
13/09	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
05/09	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
10/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-3	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas B vs Santomera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Santomera win (44%). Probabilities: Aguilas B 28%, draw 28%, Santomera 44%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas B vs Santomera?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Aguilas B 1.16 · Santomera 1.5), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas B vs Santomera?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.