Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Union Molinense CF vs SFC Minerva

Team pages: Union Molinense CF · SFC Minerva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Union Molinense CF1.9

SFC Minerva0.75

1X2

64% 23% 14%

Union Molinense CF Draw SFC Minerva

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Molinense CF 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDWDLW

SFC Minerva 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Union Molinense CF 1–2–1 SFC Minerva (4 last)

SFC Minerva2-0Union Molinense CF
Union Molinense CF5-1SFC Minerva
Union Molinense CF0-0SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva2-2Union Molinense CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Molinense CF 1514 · SFC Minerva 1458

	Union Molinense CF	Draw	SFC Minerva
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Molinense CF (rating 1514 vs 1458).
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Molinense CF	SFC Minerva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	11/78/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +31’	1.40	4.10	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Molinense CF 1–2–1 SFC Minerva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	SFC Minerva	2-0 HT 1-0	Union Molinense CF
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	5-1 HT 1-1	SFC Minerva
26/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	0-0 HT 0-0	SFC Minerva
15/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	SFC Minerva	2-2 HT 1-1	Union Molinense CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	9	8	1	0	22	7	25
2	Atletico Santa Cruz	9	5	3	1	16	10	18
3	Aguilas B	9	4	5	0	14	6	17
4	San Javier CF	9	4	4	1	14	12	16
5	UCAM Murcia CF B	9	4	3	2	18	10	15
6	Union Molinense CF	9	4	3	2	16	11	15
7	UD Los Garres	9	4	2	3	11	8	14
8	Bala Azul	9	3	4	2	12	10	13
9	Deportivo Maritimo	9	4	1	4	12	15	13
10	Alcantarilla FC	9	3	3	3	13	10	12
11	At. Pulpileno	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
11	Olimpico Totana	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
13	Cotillas CD	9	3	1	5	10	13	10
14	FC Cartagena B	9	2	3	4	14	17	9
15	SFC Minerva	9	2	2	5	4	11	8
16	CD Algar	9	2	0	7	6	23	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
18	Mazarron	9	1	1	7	12	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Molinense CF	SFC Minerva
Atletico Santa Cruz	0-2 L	0-2 L
Bala Azul	1-1 D	0-2 L
Aguilas B	1-1 D	0-2 L
Mazarron	3-2 W	1-0 W
Olimpico Totana	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Javier CF	2-2 D	0-1 L
FC Cartagena B	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Union Molinense CF (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Molinense CF

DWDLWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
31/10	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
25/10	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
10/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-0	–	–	W
04/10	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
27/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	3-2	1	8	W
20/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
13/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-2	10	9	D
06/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	0	4	D

SFC Minerva

WWDLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
01/11	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
25/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-3	3	9	L
11/10	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
04/10	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
20/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
13/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
06/09	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
10/05	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-2	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Molinense CF vs SFC Minerva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Molinense CF win (64%). Probabilities: Union Molinense CF 64%, draw 23%, SFC Minerva 14%.

How many goals are expected in Union Molinense CF vs SFC Minerva?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Union Molinense CF 1.9 · SFC Minerva 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Molinense CF vs SFC Minerva?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.