Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 08/11, 11:30

Prediction: SFC Minerva vs Atletico Santa Cruz

Team pages: SFC Minerva · Atletico Santa Cruz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

SFC Minerva0.88

Atletico Santa Cruz1.33

1X2

24% 29% 47%

SFC Minerva Draw Atletico Santa Cruz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SFC Minerva 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDWLLL

Atletico Santa Cruz 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDDWWW

Head-to-head

SFC Minerva 0–2 Atletico Santa Cruz (2 last)

Atletico Santa Cruz1-0SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva0-2Atletico Santa Cruz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SFC Minerva 1445 · Atletico Santa Cruz 1546

	SFC Minerva	Draw	Atletico Santa Cruz
Our model	24%	31%	46%
Market	25%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Santa Cruz (rating 1445 vs 1546).
H2H favours Atletico Santa Cruz: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SFC Minerva	Atletico Santa Cruz
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/75/13%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4.1	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.20

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +12’	3.60	3.20	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SFC Minerva 0–0–2 Atletico Santa Cruz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Atletico Santa Cruz	1-0 HT 0-0	SFC Minerva
14/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	SFC Minerva	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Santa Cruz

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SFC Minerva	Atletico Santa Cruz
Cotillas CD	1-3 L	1-0 W
Aguilas B	0-2 L	1-1 D
Mazarron	1-0 W	2-2 D
Olimpico Totana	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Cartagena B	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Santa Cruz (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SFC Minerva

LWWDLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
25/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-3	3	9	L
11/10	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
04/10	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
20/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
13/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
06/09	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
10/05	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
03/05	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-4	–	–	L

Atletico Santa Cruz

LWLWDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
24/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
10/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
06/09	AD Mar Menor San Javier Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-3	6	11	L
10/05	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SFC Minerva vs Atletico Santa Cruz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Santa Cruz win (47%). Probabilities: SFC Minerva 24%, draw 29%, Atletico Santa Cruz 47%.

How many goals are expected in SFC Minerva vs Atletico Santa Cruz?

The model expects 2.21 goals (SFC Minerva 0.88 · Atletico Santa Cruz 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in SFC Minerva vs Atletico Santa Cruz?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.