Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 08/11, 11:00

Prediction: UCAM Murcia CF B vs Bala Azul

Team pages: UCAM Murcia CF B · Bala Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

UCAM Murcia CF B1.73

Bala Azul1.14

1X2

50% 26% 24%

UCAM Murcia CF B Draw Bala Azul

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UCAM Murcia CF B 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDLWWW

Bala Azul 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLWDW

Head-to-head

UCAM Murcia CF B 3–2–1 Bala Azul (6 last)

UCAM Murcia CF B1-1Bala Azul
Bala Azul0-0UCAM Murcia CF B
Bala Azul0-1UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B1-0Bala Azul
Bala Azul1-2UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B0-1Bala Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCAM Murcia CF B 1531 · Bala Azul 1494

	UCAM Murcia CF B	Draw	Bala Azul
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UCAM Murcia CF B: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCAM Murcia CF B	Bala Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	7.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +7’	1.80	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +69’	1.80	3.35	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UCAM Murcia CF B 3–2–1 Bala Azul

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	1-1 HT 0-0	Bala Azul
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	0-0 HT 0-0	UCAM Murcia CF B
20/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	0-1 HT 0-0	UCAM Murcia CF B
08/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	1-0 HT 0-0	Bala Azul
17/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	1-2	UCAM Murcia CF B
05/12/21 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	0-1 HT 0-0	Bala Azul

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCAM Murcia CF B	Bala Azul
Cotillas CD	1-0 W	1-2 L
Alcantarilla FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Mazarron	5-1 W	1-0 W
Olimpico Totana	0-1 L	2-2 D
Aguilas B	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia CF B (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCAM Murcia CF B

DDLWDDLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
24/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/10	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	5-1	4	3	W
04/10	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
20/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	0	7	D
13/09	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
05/09	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
10/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Bala Azul

LLDWDLLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	10	8	W
25/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
10/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	6	11	W
04/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	11	8	L
20/09	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
12/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
06/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-4	–	–	L
02/05	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-3	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCAM Murcia CF B vs Bala Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UCAM Murcia CF B win (50%). Probabilities: UCAM Murcia CF B 50%, draw 26%, Bala Azul 24%.

How many goals are expected in UCAM Murcia CF B vs Bala Azul?

The model expects 2.86 goals (UCAM Murcia CF B 1.73 · Bala Azul 1.14), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UCAM Murcia CF B vs Bala Azul?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.