Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Santomera vs Mazarron

Team pages: Santomera · Mazarron

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Santomera2

Mazarron1.17

1X2

55% 24% 20%

Santomera Draw Mazarron

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Santomera 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWW

Mazarron 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Santomera 0–2 Mazarron (2 last)

Mazarron5-0Santomera
Santomera0-1Mazarron

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santomera 1578 · Mazarron 1451

	Santomera	Draw	Mazarron
Our model	56%	24%	21%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santomera (rating 1578 vs 1451).
H2H favours Mazarron: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santomera	Mazarron
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	6.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.81 ★
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +10’	1.57	3.75	4.75
20:58 +11’	1.65▲	3.70▼	4.20▼
23:39 +6’	1.65	3.60▼	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:21 +2’	1.83	3.50	3.76
18:22 +167’	1.81▼	3.58▲	3.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santomera 0–0–2 Mazarron

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Mazarron	5-0 HT 3-0	Santomera
02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	0-1 HT 0-0	Mazarron

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santomera	Mazarron
At. Pulpileno	3-2 W	1-0 W
Bullas Deportivo	2-1 W	5-1 W
CD Algar	2-0 W	1-2 L
UCAM Murcia CF B	2-1 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santomera (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santomera

WLWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-1	3	7	W
24/10	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	5	7	W
10/10	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
04/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
27/09	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
13/09	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
05/09	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
10/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-3	0	4	L
02/05	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	9	10	W

Mazarron

WDLLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	5-1	–	–	W
24/10	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/10	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-5	5	3	L
04/10	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	2-3	4	8	L
20/09	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	5	11	L
06/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
10/05	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santomera vs Mazarron?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santomera win (55%). Probabilities: Santomera 55%, draw 24%, Mazarron 20%.

How many goals are expected in Santomera vs Mazarron?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Santomera 2 · Mazarron 1.17), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Santomera vs Mazarron?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.